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OPINION

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Manila on July 23, 2026, primarily to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. It was later disclosed that the meeting lasted 35 minutes but that it produced no visible breakthrough. In Russia’s readout, Lavrov again stated that continued Western arms supplies to Ukraine are unacceptable.

At the same time, the U.S. – Iran war is steadily escalating. Of particular interest is Iran’s ability to accurately target and hit valuable U.S. assets throughout the region; and more importantly, to kill U.S. personnel. There is no reason to doubt that Iran, a nation where the majority of college graduates are women, has developed the technology to manufacture maneuverable high-speed missiles capable of penetrating U.S. defenses. However, it is not known to possess high-resolution satellites capable of pinpointing specific high-value targets such as radars, hangars with expensive planes and drones, and more importantly, barracks. That is not to say it does not have such technology, only that it is not publicly known to have it. On the other hand, Russia and China, who do have it, could be forwarding such intelligence to Iran. If so, that would make either, or both, active participants in the conflict on par with the U.S. and Europe against Russia. The difference is that both Russia and China deny any such involvement whereas the assistance from the U.S. and Europe is overt and extensive.

The potential for these seemingly unrelated conflicts to merge into an uncontrollable cauldron is much higher than might be assumed. The fact is the interests of Russia and China on the one hand, and the U.S. and Europe on the other, are on opposite sides of the fence. As it pertains to Ukraine, it is intolerable and unacceptable for Russia not to succeed to enforce its terms, a result, from their point of view, tantamount to a strategic defeat that could precipitate the demise of the Russian State. This could well be construed as the very set of conditions that might trigger the introduction of nuclear weapons in the conflict since President Putin lowered the threshold for their use in 2024.

Similarly, in terms of size, Iran is a large mountainous country, larger than France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom combined. In other words, there are many places where to hide things. Should it eventually conclude that the only true deterrent to U.S. – Israeli attacks is to possess nuclear weapons, it might find a way to manufacture them and present the world with a fait accompli.

The only way to ensure a peaceful outcome is to meet the legitimate concerns and rights of the belligerents and their protegees. Given the religious and ethnic strife in the region, that, of course, is the ultimate test of tolerance.