Gridlock Revisited

January 25, 2019

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The ripple effect of the government shutdown has spread far and wide, and the longer it continues the worse it will get, particularly for ordinary people. The poor and aged are at risk of losing their all-important housing benefits that keep them from becoming homeless, all because the federal agencies tasked with funding those vital programs, including Section 8, are either closed or understaffed. Federal employees currently working without pay cannot continue to do so indefinitely. At some point they’ll have to quit which will force the government, if and when it reopens, to train new employees, if there’s anyone left to do so, at great cost; not just in monetary terms but in the public’s perception of what the “full faith and credit” of the government truly means.

It’s also negatively impacting real estate -a critical part of the economy- already reeling from higher interest rates. While Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to operate normally, the economic uncertainty stemming from the shutdown has resulted in a reduction in loan volume. The slower pace of tax return verifications by the IRS is delaying lenders’ ability to originate loans, which in turn, is reducing the volume of mortgages to Fannie and Freddie. The Federal Housing Administration is not endorsing reverse mortgages and Title 1 loans, and it’s not making any new commitments in the Multi-family Program during the shutdown. Single family loan processing through the U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Housing Service has come to a halt, and the Small Business Administration (SBA) is closed, all lending halted.

The Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, passed by the Senate on April 8, 1864 and by the House of Representatives on January 31, 1865, abolished involuntary servitude (and slavery) except as punishment for a crime. Involuntary servitude is a United States legal and constitutional term that describes a person laboring against his/her will to benefit another under some form of coercion other than the worker’s financial needs. Accordingly, federal employees forced to work without pay indefinitely on pain of destitution looks, feels, smells, and might even be, a textbook example of involuntary servitude under coercion. If so, at a minimum, this abomination would also be blatantly unconstitutional.

This situation cries out for a (courageous) emergency ruling by the full U.S. Supreme Court, if only someone with legal standing might request it. Mere words cannot adequately convey the urgent need for its intervention to prevent current or future politicians and corporations from weaponizing the livelihood of innocent employees and their families, federal or not, to impose their will. If they’re unwilling or unable, or both, to work with each other like they’re supposed to, then perhaps they should resign –en masse if necessary. After all, no one is irreplaceable.

IPCC Special Report on Climate Change

October 8, 2018

Here’s a selected portion of the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change. The entire report can be found here.  Editor’s comment: Time to switch to hydrogen.

A. Understanding Global Warming of 1.5°C4

A1. Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming5 above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. (high confidence) {1.2, Figure SPM.1}

A1.1. Reflecting the long-term warming trend since pre-industrial times, observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the decade 2006–2015 was 0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C)6 higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period (very high confidence). Estimated anthropogenic global warming matches the level of observed warming to within ±20% (likely range). Estimated anthropogenic global warming is currently increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and 0.3°C) per decade due to past and ongoing emissions (high confidence). {1.2.1, Table1.1, 1.2.4}

A1.2. Warming greater than the global annual average is being experienced in many land regions and seasons, including two to three times higher in the Arctic. Warming is generally higher over land than over the ocean. (high confidence) {1.2.1, 1.2.2, Figure 1.1, Figure 1.3, 3.3.1, 3.3.2}

A1.3. Trends in intensity and frequency of some climate and weather extremes have been detected over time spans during which about 0.5°C of global warming occurred (medium confidence). This assessment is based on several lines of evidence, including attribution studies for changes in extremes since 1950. {3.3.1, 3.3.2, 3.3.3}

A.2. Warming from anthropogenic emissions from the pre-industrial period to the present will persist for centuries to millennia and will continue to cause further long-term changes in the climate system, such as sea level rise, with associated impacts (high confidence), but these emissions alone are unlikely to cause global warming of 1.5°C (medium confidence) {1.2, 3.3, Figure 1.5, Figure SPM.1}

A2.1. Anthropogenic emissions (including greenhouse gases, aerosols and their precursors) up to the present are unlikely to cause further warming of more than 0.5°C over the next two to three decades (high confidence) or on a century time scale (medium confidence). {1.2.4, Figure 1.5}

A2.2. Reaching and sustaining net-zero global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and declining net nonCO2 radiative forcing would halt anthropogenic global warming on multi-decadal timescales (high confidence). The maximum temperature reached is then determined by cumulative net global anthropogenic CO2 emissions up to the time of net zero CO2 emissions (high confidence) and the level of non-CO2 radiative forcing in the decades prior to the time that maximum temperatures are reached (medium confidence). On longer timescales, sustained net negative global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and/or further reductions in non-CO2 radiative forcing may still be required to prevent further warming due to Earth system feedbacks and reverse ocean acidification (medium confidence) and will be required to minimize sea level rise (high confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1, 1.2.3, 1.2.4, Figure 1.4, 2.2.1, 2.2.2, 3.4.4.8, 3.4.5.1, 3.6.3.2}

IPCC Special Report 2018

Costa Rica’s Electricity 98.53% from Renewable Sources

July 12, 2018

Unofficial Translation

CR Wind Turbines

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

98.53% of electricity generated in Costa Rica since 2014 is renewable.

During this period of time there were 1,197 days of clean production.

Planning, diversity, and a complementary matrix make it possible to optimize resources despite dry years.

The addition of wind and hydro plants (the latter at the Reventazón River) reduced the use of hydrocarbons.

Currently, renewable electricity in 2018 has surpassed 97%.

According to the National Center for Control of Energy of the Costa Rican Institute of Electricity (ICE, its Spanish acronym), over the last four years Costa Rica generated 98.53% of its electricity from five renewable sources –water, geothermal, wind, biomass and solar.

Between June 1, 2014 and June 30, 2018 the National Electric System (SEN, its Spanish acronym) produced 44,300.53 gigawatt/hours. Of these, 98.53% -43,647.72 GWH- came from plants that use renewable resources of the national matrix (see tables).

Beginning with 2016, clean generation was reinforced with the coming online of the Reventazón Hydroelectric Plant, whose role as a stabilizing reservoir is to contribute to maintain the balance between the country’s electric supply and demand and to avoid consuming hydrocarbons.

During these 48 months 14 new plants were added to SEN: seven wind, six hydroelectric and one solar that yielded 1,197 days with 100% clean production. By the first quarter of 2019 ICE will add the Las Pilas II Geothermal Plant –with an installed capacity of 55 megawatts- which will be the most modern of its kind in the Central American Isthmus.

During 2018, clean electricity has reached 97.3% so it is projected that the average over the last four years will be maintained. In March this year, Costa Rica’s wind generation reached a historic peak for one month: 216.56 MWH.

Since June 2014 only 652,82 GWH came from fossil fuels, used primarily in the fourth quarter, during the dry season. Garabito, ICE’s main geothermal plant, became the first in Latin America to install a filter to capture contaminant particles.

The use of renewable resources allows the country to have one of lowest rates of emissions of greenhouse gases from the generation of electricity in the world.

Generation of Electricity in Costa Rica

June 2014 to June 2018

Source GWH Percent
Hydro 33,124.54 74.77
Geothermal 5,280.43 11.92
Wind 4,908.86 11.08
Biomass 322.24 0.73
Solar 11.54 0.03
Fossil fuels 652.82 1.47
Totals 44,300.43 100.00

 

EDITOR’S OBSERVATION: Note the low solar percentage; there’s room for exponential growth.

Thucydides & Tariffs

June 26, 2018

ThucydidesPresident Trump has decided to levy tariffs primarily on Chinese, European, Mexican, Canadian, Indian and Turkish products, and in so doing, he has alienated them all. Presumably, following the same logic –that the trade deficit is unsustainable- at some point he’ll have to do the same with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, among many others. Given the cataclysmic nature of these events, a bit of historical synopsis is in order.

The idea of outsourcing and relocating entire industries to countries with extraordinarily low labor costs relative to the United States originated with supply side-economists and the CEOs of American and European multinationals, who correctly perceived an unprecedented profit-making opportunity. Labor costs would drop dramatically, often to an infinitesimal fraction of what they had been in the States, and their profit margin would skyrocket. It worked beautifully for the executives who saw this through and the shareholders they serve –a tiny fraction of the population whose share of national wealth now matches or exceeds the Gilded Age. But for the working classes it was a disaster. The high-paying blue-collar jobs that required only a high school diploma –the backbone of America’s industrial prowess since the days of the original Henry Ford- disappeared, never to come back. As these jobs were predominantly male dominated, it is they who were disproportionately affected. This led to a profound transformation of American society –from the composition of the typical household to stratospheric real estate prices relative to the median wages of working class people, the rate of divorce, the decline of the institution of marriage, a steep decline in the birthrate, particularly of whites, an exploding opioid-related death rate, the most unaffordable health care system among western industrialized nations, and a sharp decline in the life expectancy on non-rich white people. Since neither the idea nor the implementation of globalization originated with the working class, they should not bear the burden of the cost to reverse the trade deficit.

Trade wars are inherently dangerous because they can easily escalate to embargoes, quarantines, blockades, and other forms of asymmetrical confrontations, including a shooting war. Not only that, under present circumstances, with the President threatening to expand tariffs to $450 billion worth of Chinese products should China retaliate in kind to the original $50 billion and subsequent $200 billion in tariffs, it is the American working classes who would feel the pain of the new taxes, for that is what tariffs are. $450 billion covers just about the entire inventory of Chinese products sold in America, from underwear to every imaginable consumer item. Rich people, who spend only a tiny fraction of their income on them, would not be negatively impacted at all. Obviously, since China exports far more to the U.S. than the other way around, the former would not be able to match tariffs on a one to one basis. But there are many other asymmetrical ways –which for purposes of this discussion shall remain nameless- with which they could retaliate to devastate our economy. This is not a poker bluff; it’s Russian roulette on a slippery slope shortcut to Thucydides’ trap.

There are several equitable and moral ways to reduce the trade deficit. One is to tax the profits (and the dividends they pay to their shareholders) of American-owned corporations on products they manufacture abroad and sell in the U.S. Alternatively, the ceiling on which social security taxes are collected could be raised to say, $400,000. Yet another way –sooner rather than later, before the trend is adopted worldwide- would be to actually manufacture that which the Chinese need but can neither produce nor procure from any other source in quantities large enough, and at competitive prices, to generate electricity, manufacture pure water to irrigate and develop their western deserts, and replace oil for mobile applications: hydrogen. Of course, to do that one would first have to accept and publicly admit that climate change is a clear and present danger to the national security of the United States…

Israel

June 10, 2018

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Background
Israel is one of two (the other is Saudi Arabia) top allies of the United States, and as attested by the recent disarray in Canada, higher than its G-7 partners. Among the reasons for this preference are shared concerns over the two supporting pillars of the American economy: the petrodollar –the all-important reason for its (still) privileged position as the premiere reserve currency of the world- and the international bond market that nourishes America’s deficit-based fiscal policy. Should either pillar collapse, so would the American economy and its ability to support Israel. As it now stands, the U.S. has its hands full, and there’s no relief in sight. Not only is it in the midst of a profound demographic change that may in time fundamentally alter its political orientation, it’s burdened by a $21 trillion (and counting) debt, a decades-long trade deficit (no one knows how the looming trade wars with most of the world will evolve), and an unparalleled challenge from China, a country with a population four times larger and an economy growing two to three times faster. In addition, as of this writing, serious divisions already exist between Jewish Americans, who are predominately Democrats, and Israelis. In view of all this plus the fact that no country has ever won all its wars nor remained perpetually dominant, a pragmatic reexamination of the seemingly intractable Israel-Palestinian conflict seems in order.

Choices
The first choice is simple enough: do nothing, stay the course. This presumes that the U.S. will emerge victorious from all its confrontations, that American economic, military, diplomatic and political support for Israel will continue unabated and indefinitely, that Iran’s growing military prowess will soon be demolished, and –in the least sanguine of cases- that the will of the Palestinians will be broken. The alternative of course is to seek a peaceful and equitable solution based on the fundamental premise that Israelis and Palestinians have an inalienable right to live in peace in separate sovereign states within what today is known as Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. Obviously this is not new; many prominent leaders have failed. What is new is that breakthroughs in the solar/hydrogen/gravity/water nexus and desertification technologies have created a hitherto nonexistent window of opportunity to peacefully and permanently settle the problem. While there are risks and possible unintended consequences with either approach, the former is likely a direct path to war while the latter gives peace a chance.

Basic Assumptions
We begin by assuming that Israel’s non-negotiable aspirations include annexing the entire West Bank, retaining the Golan Heights (which is tangentially related but not a part of the Palestinian issue per se), permanent physical separation between Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and Palestinian recognition that all of Jerusalem has been annexed and is now the capital of Israel. As for the Palestinians, we’ll assume their highest priority is to have a sovereign state immune from Israeli incursions, invasions, demolitions and blockades, the right to repatriate any and all Palestinians currently living abroad, and a desire to make East Jerusalem the capital of a Palestinian State.

Phases
This proposal envisions a series of time-defined phases to achieve the two-state solution. The cost of the project would require the materialization of financial donors. This is feasible.

Gaza
At best, there is considerable animosity in Gaza; at worst it is a breeding ground for hatred –on both sides of the fence. Therefore the first step should be to disengage and permanently separate Gazans and Israelis. One way to do so is to swap Gaza for an equivalent area around Eilat. Israel would acquire the entire Mediterranean coast; Gazans would get instant relief from the blockade plus a city with superior infrastructure adjacent to kindred Arabic-speaking neighbors in the Gulf of Aqaba. The new border between the Eilat region and Israel would be temporary, subject to change in conjunction with the West Bank phase.

The West Bank
The entire West Bank would be swapped for an area of equivalent size beginning at the northern boundary of the Eilat region and west of the Jordanian border north to the southwest corner of the Dead Sea. The configuration of the northern and western boundaries of the swapped area would be negotiated to take into account the security of Israel’s existing sensitive nuclear and military facilities. In the meantime, Israel would temporarily pay ground rent to the Palestinians for the former’s settlements in the West Bank, retroactively to the time they were built and ending when the West Bank swap is fully executed.

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Water
As the Palestinians would be getting a parched desert, this entire plan is predicated on the creation of a new adequate source of water. A sea level canal would be dug from the Gulf of Aqaba to the Dead Sea; solar power would be used to produce hydrogen from seawater; the hydrogen would be oxidized, and in conjunction with gravity would generate surplus electricity and manufacture pure water. Fossil fuels would not be required. The newly created water would be used to support a program of desertification as outlined in this Chinese project.

Jerusalem
Palestinians would have a right of access to the Dome of the Rock, as per current regulations; however their political capital would be any city except Jerusalem.

Iran

May 22, 2018

Mike Pompeo's Ultimatum

If President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal –otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action- on May 9, 2018 appears to be misguided, arrogant, and self-destructive, rest assured, nothing is at it seems. With a stroke of his pen he managed at once to alienate and humiliate the leaders of linchpin NATO members Germany, France and Britain, and all but convince allies, quasi-adversaries and neutrals –including Russia, China, and India, who deplored and criticized the President’s decision- that America’s non-treaty international agreements aren’t worth the paper they’re written on.

Twelve days later, on the 21st, Secretary of State Pompeo essentially demanded, on pain of ominous but unspecified consequences, that Iran disarm and render itself prostrate in perpetuity, something that no Iranian government would likely accept.

This brings to mind Austria-Hungary’s 1914 ultimatum to Serbia following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. On that occasion the former intended to ingest the latter just as it had done with Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1909, but it didn’t quite happen that way. Instead, after fighting the “war to end all wars,” the Austro-Hungarian Empire ceased to exist. This time it’s all about oil, pipelines, and the all-important petrodollar; and Iran is in the way.

The President’s actions are understandable only if one sees that his intent is to preserve the status quo, i.e. perpetual addiction to fossil fuels and its conjoined twin –continued denial of climate change. He is wrong, on several counts. There is no such thing as status quo; change, at varying speeds, is the law of the universe. A corollary of that of course is that nothing in this world lasts forever, and that includes America’s military hegemony. Accordingly, by attempting to preserve the indefensible, the President is pursuing a Pyrrhic victory. Instead, he should strive to prepare the nation for the massive unemployment and low wages we’ll face from the advent of artificial intelligence and robots, depleted aquifers, and unheard of diseases caused by climate change. And the way to do so is by switching from fossil fuels and nuclear fission to hydrogen and redistributing future profits from its sale in an egalitarian manner. The technology exists; all that’s required is enlightened leadership.

First Hydrogen Economy

costa-rica-flag

In his inauguration speech, incoming President Carlos Alvarado of Costa Rica revealed plans to become the first country to commit to develop the production and exclusive use of hydrogen and other environmentally-healthy forms of energy for transportation and production of electricity. As there are no natural deposits of fossil fuels in Costa Rica, it must constantly earn U.S. dollars to pay for imported oil. Switching to hydrogen would end that liability.

 

 

 

 

Following is an unofficial translation of President Alvarado’s directive:

May 10, 2018

• Directs institutions within the Environment and Energy sectors to develop a 6-month plan to develop research, production and commercialization of hydrogen.
• President Carlos Alvarado stated that by 2020 Costa Rica should lead the implementation of the Paris accords by becoming a global decarbonization laboratory.

As part of a strategy toward the decarbonization of the economy, President Carlos Alvarado Quesada and Minister of Environment and Energy Carlos Manuel Rodríguez issued a directive to promote using hydrogen as fuel.

“Institutions within the environment and energy sectors are instructed, within the scope of their respective competences, to develop a plan to promote research, production and commercialization of hydrogen as fuel,” states the directive.

It adds that the plan shall be presented to the President of the Republic within the next six months.

In his inauguration speech this past Tuesday, President Alvarado commented that “decarbonization is the great task of our generation.”

“We must propel a determined and coordinated action of all sectors of society to start and irreversibly accelerate the process, not only by promoting transportation, electricity, hydrogen and other technologies, but by updating our institutions,” he said.

He also said that by the UN’s 2020 Conference on Climate Change, Costa Rica should lead the objectives of the Paris accords and become a global laboratory for decarbonization.

The directive issued this Tuesday deals with these objectives and looks to promote research and use of environmentally healthy energy alternatives as stated in the National Plan of Development.

The National Energy Plan 2015-2030 “requires a strategy of transition or path for diversifying the matrix of fuels toward alternative forms of energy other than oil derivatives.”

As proof of a clear political will to join the global trend toward decarbonization of economies to ensure truly sustainable growth, the incoming President and his ministers arrived to the inauguration in a hydrogen-fueled bus developed in Costa Rica by scientist and ex-NASA astronaut Franklin Chang Díaz.

Priorities

May 5, 2018

The Russian/NATO Front
On December 26, 1991 the Soviet Union officially dissolved, and the world breathed a collective sigh of relief. With the threat of impending nuclear war all but gone -it was assumed- the whole purpose of NATO necessarily ceased to exist, and for the first time since President Eisenhower’s 1959 warning, it was suddenly possible for America to rein in its military-industrial complex. Instead, over vociferous Russian objections, NATO expanded to Poland, Bulgaria and Romania –former Warsaw Pact nations- and to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, former Soviet Republics.

Eastern Front 1941

Then, following a coup, the Ukraine tilted towards the European Union, and in so doing virtually recreated the Russo/German front as it had been on September 9, 1941. Alarmed, Russia rearmed and annexed the Crimea with its all-important naval base at Sevastopol. It is not known what if anything Russia would do if the Ukraine actually joins NATO (a possibility expressly opposed by the likes of Dr. Henry Kissinger); that would allow the alliance to deploy short-range nuclear-tipped missiles 300 miles from Moscow. On this vein it’s worth remembering that the 1962 crisis was over Russian missiles in Cuba 1,134 miles from Washington D.C., not 300. What is certain is that the threat of terminal war between the two largest (and upgraded) nuclear arsenals in the world has reemerged with a vengeance. Incidentally, Russia’s reaction immediately provoked new tensions with the U.S. and NATO. That effectively -and no doubt coincidentally- ended any lingering thoughts of downsizing America’s military-industrial complex or dissolving NATO.

Enter China
The United States has long relied on two load-bearing pillars to maintain qualitative and quantitative hegemony over its adversaries: its ability to outspend them and technical superiority. The former depends entirely on the petrodollar –the (still) dominant reserve currency of the world- which allows the government to finance its perpetual deficits without raising taxes on those with the means to pay; technical superiority requires a constant stream of a large number of brilliant and innovative STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) students. Today both pillars shudder and groan as they struggle to contend with mediocre public schools, high college tuition, sharply curtailed immigration, and unprecedented competition from emerging economies, particularly China, which on March 26, 2018 launched an oil-futures contract denominated in yuan.

The Education Front
On April 26, 2018 the U.S. Department of labor reported some disheartening and alarming statistics:

Bachelors

• Only 66.7% of 2017’s 2.9 million high school graduates age 16 to 24 were enrolled in colleges or universities in October 2017.
• Fully 16.3 million people age 16 to 24 were not enrolled in school -42.7% of 38.2 million.
• Only about one-fourth of recent bachelor’s degree recipients age 20 to 29 were enrolled in school.
• Among those age 20 to 29, unemployment rates for recent associate degree recipients, recent bachelor’s degree recipients, and recent advanced degree recipients were 5.6%, 8.3%, and 11.9% respectively, much higher than for the general population.
• The unemployment rate for recent high school graduates not enrolled in college was 16.8%, higher than the rate of 10.2% for recent graduates enrolled in college.
• Between October 2016 and October 2017, 530,000 students dropped out of high school, and their jobless rate was 18.9%.

According to another recent report, U.S. colleges are expected to experience a steady decline in enrollment of native-born students primarily because the number of high schools students in both public and private schools is expected to decline through 2030. Reasons for the decline are:

• Rising costs of a college education
• Increasing skepticism that the return on investment of a college education is worth the cost
• Relatively low rates of timely degree completion in both 4-year and 2-year colleges
• Reluctance of many to travel far from home and to bear the cost of that travel
• Reluctance to take on the burden of long-term debt and its effect on new home formation and credit history
• The perception of a relative lack of minority and low-income student social and academic support on campuses
• An increasing number of American students (100,000) studying abroad, mainly in the U.K., Italy, Spain, France and China.

One way colleges attempt to offset the new reality is by accepting more foreign students, who pay full tuition. Their number grew by 7.1%, topping 1 million in the 2015-2016 academic year, with the two largest emerging economies, China and India, accounting for 31.5% and 15.8% respectively.

A country’s strength in science and engineering arises from a skilled STEM-capable workforce and sustained investment in research and development, and we are not doing particularly well in that regard.

• China has rapidly increased R&D spending over time –an average of 18% per year between 2000 and 2015 compared to 4% in the U.S. If trends continue, China will pass the U.S. in R&D by the end of 2018.
• As of November 2017, China claims 202 of the fastest 500 supercomputers in the world, the U.S. 143.
• Globally, bachelor’s degrees in S&E fields totaled more than 7.5 million in 2014, with India, China and the U.S. accounting for 25%, 22% and 10% respectively.
• Between 2000 and 2014 the number of S&E bachelor’s degrees awarded in China rose more than 360%; the U.S. grew by 54% over the same period.
• China increased its production of peer-reviewed S&E articles by 8% annually between 2006 to 2016, compared to only 1% in the U.S. In 2016 China surpassed the U.S. in publications of S&E research papers.

Tectonic Shifts
Not only does China have a population four times larger than the U.S. (and larger than the U.S. and NATO combined), the all-powerful Communist Party has the authority to decide, for better or worse, what to do with the economy. So far their decisions have been nothing short of astounding: their economy is growing at a rate approximately three times faster per year than the U.S. More importantly, they’re investing much of that growth in physical infrastructure, research and development, and education at all levels. It’s not difficult to extrapolate that if present trends continue, by 2050 the U.S. will find itself in a position with respect to China similar to what Germany and Japan currently are to the U.S. Clearly, to avoid falling into the void of irrelevance, profound systemic changes will have to be made, both to the economic system and the very soul of the nation. Specifically, the largest segment of the population –white non-Hispanics- will need to pragmatically embrace and support the ongoing seismic demographic reality.

A Possible New Beginning
The United States must prepare for the day -not far off- when the dollar ceases to be the reserve currency of the world and the government loses its unique privilege to finance its perennial deficits without raising taxes on those with the means to pay. One way to do so is to abandon the (current) obsolete fixation with military hegemony in favor of an unassailable defensive posture. At that point it would become possible to invest the savings in a parallel egalitarian economy based on the production of hydrogen and pure water from solar energy, seawater and gravity and end the world’s addiction to fossil fuels and nuclear fission. Upon achieving hydrogen self-sufficiency, America would export the surplus. That would combat climate change, help with the trade deficit, create much-needed well-paying jobs that cannot be outsourced, and end all oil-related tensions and wars.

Diseases Related to Climate Change in the U.S. Triple Between 2004-2016

May 2, 2018

Source: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention

Source: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention

Yet again another living example of the effects and consequences of climate change. A study from the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention warns that illnesses from mosquito, tick and flea bites more than tripled in the U.S. between 2004 and 2016, and nine new germs spread by them were discovered or introduced during that period. Worse, about 80% of vector control organizations lack critical prevention and control capacities.

As a reminder, these diseases, and others yet to come, can infect even those who deny or ignore the reality of anthropomorphic climate change.

Syria

April 22, 2018

The recent bombing of Syria by the U.S., Great Britain and France raised a veritable labyrinth of questions. The purported justification for it was the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian armed forces against civilians in Douma, a rebel-held town on the verge of surrendering to the Syrian Army. Under the circumstances, it’s difficult to imagine how the regime would have benefited militarily from such an attack. Ironically, it may have helped the Russians fine tune their S-400s to track cruise missiles and planes in actual combat -invaluable experience.

The Players
The Syrian civil war is the result of a long simmering socio-political dissatisfaction amplified by drought and its consequences. Now it has evolved into a chaotic struggle where Sunni and Shia militias –backed respectively by the U.S., and its allies and Russia and its allies- fight each other as well as the Assad regime. The wildcard in all this is Israel, America’s closest ally. It reserves the right to violate Syrian airspace and take any military action at any time to prevent Iran from entrenching itself or deploying sophisticated weaponry in Syria capable of destroying Israel. Syria is a powder keg. All it needs is a spark and it will go off.

The Fracture
Looking at it from a global perspective, the de facto frontline between NATO and Russia running from St. Petersburg to the Black Sea closely resembles the Russo-German front in June 1942, with some important differences: NATO has not (yet) ingested Byelorussia; the antagonists have enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world many times over; Iran, no longer controlled by Britain or the U.S., has the capacity to destroy Saudi oil terminals and to block, at least temporarily, the Strait of Hormuz; and China, the largest economy in Asia and with a population four times larger than the U.S., is rapidly acquiring the capacity to challenge America’s control of the South China Sea and beyond.

Oil: The Bone of Contention
While consumer nations –among them the European Union, China and India- rely on oil for their everyday needs, for financial reasons the United States depends on it even more. The lifeblood of the American economy is the petrodollar, a fiat currency that allows the U.S. to “print” virtually unlimited amounts of money, incur perpetual budget deficits with impunity, and support a “defense” budget larger than the next ten nations combined. No other nation enjoys this privilege. As it now stands, the addiction to fossil fuels trumps the overwhelming litany of warnings from the scientific community about climate change and its consequences. The addiction is so strong that the plutocrats and oligarchs that run the world are willing to risk a terminal conflagration, if necessary, to perpetuate their oil-based wealth and power.

The End Game
According to the United Nations, the current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050. That’s an increase of 2.2 billion in 32 years. If nothing is done, by that time the water crisis -already severe in many parts of the world including the Ogallala region in the Great Plains, central California, India and China- will have reached catastrophic dimensions. The winds of famine, disease, war, and an untold number of refugees are on the horizon, and our leaders have not yet mustered the political courage to reverse the suicidal course they’ve put us on. They must coordinate efforts to replace fossil fuels and nuclear fission with hydrogen to generate electricity and manufacture the water the world will need to feed itself.

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