Immigration Facts

April 7, 2018

President Trump’s recent orders to deploy the National Guard along the Mexican border calls for a frank, truthful analysis of the facts. Incidentally, his immediate predecessors did the same thing.

Decline of White non-Hispanics in U.S. 2014-2060

All sovereign nations have the right to seal their borders if they so choose. In fact, two famous precedents exist. Emperor Hadrian built his famous wall to keep the northern barbarians out of Roman Britannia, and the first emperor of China, Qin Shi Huang, connected existing segments previously built by various states to keep nomads from inner Asia out. Notably, in both cases, it was southern empires that acted to keep northerners out. Now, ironically, it will be the other way around.

Immigration, Mexico, China, India

At issue is whether the trend and volume of illegal immigration thorough our southern border is detrimental to the interests and security of the United States. The chart above shows that, in fact, immigration from Mexico has been declining sharply over the last 14 years; at the same time, immigration from India and China has been increasing. Since these trends predate the president’s tenure, he won’t be able to truthfully claim credit for them.

There are several reasons for this, among them improving economic conditions in Mexico and persistent discrimination, contempt and rejection of Latinos in general, including Mexicans, in the U.S. As for security, there’s no question that violent street gangs must be eliminated. However, since they thrive from the illicit drug trade, it will be difficult if not impossible to do so as long as America’s insatiable demand for illicit drugs remains unchecked. After all, with just 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. consumes fully 80% of opioid global production. One other thing about security: Latinos cannot be accused of mass shootings or terrorist acts.

 

Hispanic Growth in Texas

The real reason behind this desperate attempt to reverse the ongoing profound demographic shift in America is political. It is not that Hispanics will become a majority in the country –whites will remain the largest group- it’s that Hispanics tend to concentrate in pivotal areas. In Texas, for example, they are projected to outnumber whites starting in 2023, and in time the gap will expand simply because the Hispanic population is younger and the white population older. Since by and large Hispanics tend to vote Democratic, the shift has potential seismic consequences for Republicans, who are mostly white, and their philosophical beliefs. There is another side to this. As whites retire and Hispanics replace them in the labor force, it is the latter who will bear the burden of supporting the former.

Not By Accident

April 4, 2018

GDP Per Hour Worked 2017

Costa Rica, a beacon of democracy with just over five million people, is known for its natural beauty, biodiversity, warm oceans, green energy, and surprisingly good football (soccer) players. Now it leads the world in GDP/hour worked, and it’s not a fluke. What makes this tiny country so special? Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that it has no army, a literacy rate higher than the U.S., and an ardent desire to live in peace. No, it’s not paradise, and yes, it has problems, serious problems. Still, the world should learn from it.

Military Cooperation Between Russia and China

April 3, 2018

Sergei Shoigu & Wei Fenghe 2018

While visiting Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Defense Minister Wei Fenghe of China emphasized that the firm determination of their armed forces to strengthen strategic cooperation was coordinated directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Defending the Dollar

Dollar man

Largely ignored by mainstream media, the dollar’s monopoly on global oil transactions is coming to an end. On March 26, 2018 the Shanghai Futures Exchange began trading oil in yuan (or renminbi), China’s currency. The ramifications of this event cannot be overstated. Some keen observers, as in this article, have eloquently analyzed some of its less sanguine financial and economic consequences. The following timeline should be food for thought.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • March 13, 2018: Ex-CIA director Mike Pompeo is appointed secretary of state to replace Rex Tillerson. Pompeo’s background: graduated first in his class at West Point; served in the U.S. Army as a cavalry officer from 1986 to 1991, prior to the collapse of the Berlin Wall; received a law degree from Harvard University in 1994. Politically, he is known for a hawkish approach toward Russia, Iran, Syria and North Korea and a staunch supporter of Israel. He has praised China but defined it as a significant security threat. In July 2017 he said that “…China has the capacity to present the greatest rivalry to America … over the medium and long term.
  • March 16, 2018: President Trump signs U.S.-Taiwan travel bill; China urges the U.S. to abide by the “one China” policy and cease official exchanges with Taiwan.
  • March 20, 2018: In a speech before an annual session of the National People’s Congress that paved the way for him to rule for life, President Xi Jinping warned that China would defend its “one China Principle”, which defines Taiwan as part of China, and that “the Chinese people have been indomitable and persistent, we have the spirit of fighting the bloody battle against our enemies to the bitter end.”
  • March 22, 2018: President Trump named John R. Bolton, a hard-line former American ambassador to the United Nations, National Security Advisor. An outspoken advocate of military action, he has called for action against Iran and North Korea.
  • March 22, 2018: President Trump directed the U.S. trade representative to level tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. In addition, the U.S. also plans to impose new investment restrictions and take action against China at the World Trade Organization; the Treasury Department also will propose additional measures.
  • March 23, 2018: China announced plans for reciprocal tariffs on 128 U.S. products that include pork, wine, fruit and steel to take place in two stages if it cannot reach an agreement with Washington.
  • March 23, 2018: China’s Ministry of National Defense said the USS Mustin, a guided missile destroyer, entered waters surrounding islands and reefs in the South China Sea before two Chinese vessels identified and warned it off.
  • March 26, 2018: The Shanghai Futures Exchange begins trading oil in yuan (or renminbi), China’s currency.
  • March 26, 2018: The Chinese Navy begins massive training drills in the South China Sea that include H-6K bombers and SU-30 and Su-35 fighters. Unlike previous years, when they were conducted only in spring and autumn, in 2018 the drills will take place every month.
  • March 27, 2018: Kim Jong-un travels to Beijing by special train; meets Xi-Jinping.
  • March 30, 2018: Russia test-fires the RS-20B Voyevoda (NATO: Satan-2), a new intercontinental ballistic missile equipped with multiple hypersonic warheads capable of destroying an area the size of Texas.
  • March 31, 2018: South Korea and the United States began their annual joint military exercises involving about 300,000 South Korean and 23,700 U.S. troops.
  • April 1, 2018: China follows through on tariffs (announced on March 23, 2018) on 128 U.S. products in retaliation for tariffs approved by president Trump on steel and aluminum manufactured in China. Among the affected products are fresh and dried fruits and nuts, steel pipes, wine, ginseng and modified ethanol.
  • April 1, 2018: At the invitation of Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, his Chinese counterpart, State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe began a visit to Russia.
  • April 4, 2018: China retaliates; levels $50 billion in tariffs on imports from the U.S. that include aircraft, cars, soybeans and chemicals. This matches American tariffs on imports from China (March 22, 2018), however President Trump declares it is not a trade war.
  • April 4, 2018: Russia and Vietnam sign a military cooperation agreement extending to 2020.
  • April 5, 2018: President Trump doubles down, orders the U.S. Trade Representative to consider an additional $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods  (that’s on top of the $50 billion ordered on March 22, 2018).
  • April 7, 2018: The “Formosa Alliance,” a coalition of political groups inside and outside of Taiwan, is formally established. Its purpose is to hold a referendum as early as 2019 to create a fully independent Republic of Taiwan.

Speaking of Trade

March 20, 2018

Trade

Rarely, if ever, are trading partners able to achieve a balanced stasis, even among friends and allies. Today keeping personal, trade, and military secrets is fast becoming a thing of the past. Computers and the internet, like flooding waters, continually disseminate them throughout the world. Witness North Korea, India, Pakistan and Iran (Israel has not yet exploded any nuclear bombs); they’ve demonstrated mastery of the nuclear cycle, unthinkable when the Manhattan Project was in full swing. Iran and China, in particular, currently manufacture a host of civilian and military goods that only thirty years ago were the exclusive domain of North America, Europe and Japan. Clearly, as time goes on, today’s surplus nations are going to find it increasingly difficult to maintain that status as the rest of the world becomes self-sufficient and begins to import less. At that point foreign competition, artificial intelligence and robots will drive unemployment, poverty and inequality up throughout the surplus-dependent nations.

This is not an unsupported extrapolation; the United States went from a surplus country at the end of World War II to today’s perennial trade deficits -the largest in the world- and it’s not President Trump’s fault. Accordingly, his contention that the situation cannot continue indefinitely is correct. In fact, It’s already undermining the degree of global trust (fiat) in the dollar as the de facto reserve currency of the world. This is confirmed by the fact that China is already offering to bypass the dollar and pay for oil with its currency, one which, incidentally, can be used to buy all sorts of Chinese-made consumer and military goods.

Chines & Viking Ships

That legitimate issues related to trade practices must be addressed, and the trade deficit radically reduced or eliminated is beyond dispute. However levying tariffs is not the answer. Cooler heads must prevail as the current animosity between China and Russia, on the one side, and the U.S., NATO and Japan on the other could easily explode into a terminal -yet avoidable and unnecessary- war. Instead, the U.S. should adopt, with confidence, a more realistic, enlightened approach based on the following:

  • China is here to stay; it cannot be destabilized or broken up.
  • Its population is four times larger. They simply have more customers and scientists, the mainstay of any advanced society, and the disparity is likely to increase.
  • Our public colleges and universities should be nearly free as they once were in the late forties and early fifties. That would allow us to tap the mass of our youth -particularly Blacks and Latinos- and hope to keep up with the growing deluge of Chinese discoveries, inventions and patents.
  • We must strive to produce that which they might be willing to buy –namely hydrogen to help them produce electricity and water without harming the environment- rather than insisting they buy only what we would like to sell but which they don’t need or want.
  • The U.S. does not need military hegemony in order to thrive and survive. It is unrealistic, bordering on delusional, to imagine that 5% of the world’s population could do that going forward. As a result, it does not need military expenditures greater than the next 10 nations combined paid for with borrowed money. Instead, it urgently needs to remedy the abysmal (and growing) gap in wealth and income -the steepest among the world’s most advanced economies- to allow us to successfully compete in the global economy without harming the environment.
  • We must accept and prepare for the day when the dollar will cease to be the preferred reserve currency of the world and the federal government will be compelled to balance its budget.

Differential Pressure Water Electrolysis Apparatus

March 18, 2018

A United States Patent has been issued for a differential pressure water electrolysis that includes high-pressure water electrolysis cells and a pressing mechanism. The high-pressure water electrolysis cells are stacked in a stacking direction. Each of the high-pressure water electrolysis cells includes an electrolyte membrane, a member, an anode current collector, a cathode current collector, an anode separator, and a cathode separator. The electrolyte membrane has a first side and a second side opposite to the first side in the stacking direction. The member has a surface which has an opening and which is in contact with the electrolyte membrane. The anode current collector is disposed on the first side of the electrolyte membrane. The cathode current collector is disposed on the second side of the electrolyte membrane. The anode separator has an anode chamber in which the anode current collector is accommodated. The pressing mechanism is to press the high-pressure water electrolysis cells in the stacking direction.

Pressuring Appraisers

WorkingRE Magazine – reprinted by permission

Pressure, Subtle Influence and Plausible Deniability

Editor’s Note: Appraisers report that despite tough new appraisal independence laws, lenders, AMCs and others haven’t stopped trying to influence the process- they’re just being more careful about covering their tracks.  Fraud expert Richard Hagar, SRA, explains how to protect yourself and your independence.
Pressure, Subtle Influence and Plausible Deniability

by Isaac Peck, Associate Editor

Plausible deniability is a term coined by the CIA to describe the withholding of information from senior officials in order to protect them from repercussions in the event that illegal, prohibited or, unpopular activities by the CIA become public knowledge.

New, tougher state and federal regulations protecting appraiser independence have most lenders and AMCs being a bit more careful these days about how they interact with appraisers.  Talk to any appraiser, however, and they will tell you that challenges to their independence persist in a variety of forms, albeit today the pressure is more subtle, with perpetrators more careful about not leaving evidence behind: plausible deniability.

The same conflicts of interest exist for the major players; loan officers, underwriters, and interested parties still have a financial interest in closing the deal, making the loan, and ensuring that the appraisal meets value. For the most part, lenders and appraisal management companies (AMCs) no longer include a “suggested or required value” when ordering an appraisal but the efforts to influence the appraiser still remain—lenders and AMCs are just using different tactics to avoid being caught red-handed- in short, to give themselves plausible deniability.

Comp Requests

A request for additional comparables is one of the most common ways that appraisers report they are pressured into altering the appraisal value. Sometimes the request can be an honest attempt to make sure the appraiser didn’t miss anything, but it’s also a way to implicitly suggest that the appraiser is being too “conservative” with his or her value conclusion.

Richard Hagar, SRA, says that most of the additional comparables his appraisal firm is asked to consider appear to have been selected based on their value and are extremely biased towards a higher value conclusion. This is an issue that many appraisers immediately recognize as an attempt at influence, but the requesting party often doesn’t see it that way.

In many cases, the client’s request to analyze additional comps is coming from someone who is not a licensed/certified appraiser in the state where the property is located. “We’re talking about underwriters or others who don’t have appraisal expertise and yet insist on getting involved in the appraisal process. They are attempting to perform the appraiser’s job,” says Hagar.

Hagar says that it is very rare for a request for additional comps to include any properties that he hasn’t already considered, but when there is a legitimate comp that he missed, he’s happy to consider it. For the vast majority of other cases, he says he refuses play their game.

“For comp requests, I usually tell them very directly that their suggestions are not comparables so I won’t consider them. Or that they were already considered in the original scope of the assignment, and they aren’t comparable,” says Hagar. “I don’t need to write out long explanations. They ask a simple question, so I give a simple answer, in writing!”

Hagar says the reason for his short responses is also the get the “influencing party” to reveal their true intentions. “I try to draw them out and get them to explain more.  It ends up trapping them, as they sometimes come back and start issuing me instructions: we want you to put these sales on a grid or we want you to start making certain adjustments,” says Hagar.  The result is a clear violation of appraiser independence that can’t be easily explained away.

Other Requests

Lenders and AMCs also make other requests in an effort to influence an appraiser’s value conclusion. Sometimes these requests are obvious violations of appraiser independence, sometimes they’re harder to spot.

“My office has seen requests to not mention the moss on the roof of the house, to not mention the fact that there are water marks on the ceiling, to remove the photo of the street that includes a damaged car, and the list goes on,” says Hagar.

Sometimes the request is legitimate. If, for example, a photo isn’t relevant to the appraisal, then the appraiser should comply with the request to remove it. But if the appraiser thinks that it’s valid- a legitimate photo that is relevant to their report, then the response to “remove the photograph” should be no, Hagar says. “The client doesn’t get to tell the appraiser how to do their job. Attempting to mold the appraisal report and tell the appraiser how to alter it is in violation of state and federal law,” says Hagar. “If the lender or client has particular needs about what photos they require, then that should be made clear up front, in the scope of work agreement before the appraisal is created or delivered. However, the majority of additional requests to alter a report after the fact are clearly attempts at influence and coercion.”

There are numerous examples of appraisers who have lost their licenses, been sued, or both, because they allowed their clients to influence their work. Hagar tells the story of an appraiser who submitted an appraisal valuing a property at $1.5 million. The client then requested that the appraiser remove the mention of the wetlands and creek nearby. After agreeing to the initial request for changes, the client came back with additional corrections, and by the time the appraiser had fully complied with the client’s “requests,” the property appraised for a value of $2.5 million.

When the property later went into foreclosure—the lender ended up suing the appraiser for a faulty appraisal.

Dealing with Influence

Lenders and AMCs have already been fined for violations of appraiser independence, and will continue to face increasing scrutiny from state and federal authorities. The result, Hagar says, is that they are adopting a much more nuanced approach when it comes to pressuring appraisers to deliver a “favorable” report.

“The people who try to influence the appraiser now try to do it without being obvious. They say things like ‘sometimes finding a higher value takes time, and we’re willing to pay you more if you spend more time on the report,’ but the end result is the same,” says Hagar.

The first thing Hagar advises appraisers to do when their independence is being openly or subtly challenged is to ask the offender to put any such request in writing and try to avoid e-mail if possible. “Ask them to put the request in a standard letter on their company letterhead or to send you the letter as a PDF and then save that letter in your work-file. If that means printing out an e-mail and saving it, so be it,” says Hagar. “You must have an audit trail to indicate why you changed your appraisal. Who asked what and why?  This way, if there is an audit of the appraiser’s work file or a lawsuit, the appraiser can show who was influencing and coercing the appraiser. YOU need the plausible deniability!”

Hagar points out that sometimes asking the lender or AMC to put the request in writing stops the issue in its tracks. Often they are ashamed or know their request is prohibited but since it’s over the phone, they have plausible deniability if a federal auditor inspects the file looking for written proof of the foolish request. “They don’t want anything in writing because that way they can deny any wrong doing if an appraiser ever files a complaint or regulators ever audit them,” Hagar says.

Secondly, Hagar says you should respond with a written physical letter as well. “Put your response on letterhead, save it as a secured PDF, and e-mail it to the client. If you just send an e-mail, they can just delete it if they don’t like your response, but there are more issues with a PDF file.”

The point of documenting the client’s requests and the appraiser’s responses is to create an audit trail for federal auditors. It also gives the appraiser a very good case should they file a complaint with government agencies to prove that their independence has been violated.

Any kind of backlash against an appraiser, such as being blacklisted for refusing to comply with a client’s unreasonable requests, is an attempt to coerce the appraiser and a clear violation of the appraiser independence laws. Hagar says that’s why it is so important for the appraiser to obtain documentation and proof of the client/AMC pushing them around—because that allows the appraiser to push back and protect themselves.

According to Hagar, this issue is incredibly important to the integrity of the industry. The fact that lenders and AMCs are trying to have plausible deniability while continuing to subtly pressure appraisers makes things more difficult for appraisers, since it’s harder to prove the violation of appraiser independence, but that shouldn’t stop appraisers from standing up for their rights.

“People are so used to telling appraisers to alter their report and how to do their jobs. But we already know what happens if appraisers don’t stand up and fight back, you get an out of control system filled with compromised appraisals and the $7 trillion failure we are living with today,” Hagar says. “If appraisers had provided good quality work that was properly reviewed by qualified people who didn’t push appraisers around and influence the results, our economy today would be far healthier than it is.”

Efficient Nickel-Iron-Copper Catalyst for Oxidation of Water

February 18, 2018

A collaborative study by scientists from the Swedish Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Pulse Institute (Stanford University, Menlo Park, CA) Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (Menlo Park, CA) and Dalian University of Technology (Dalian, China) and first published in Nature Communications reports that a tri-metal based core-shell nickel-iron-copper is one of the most promising oxygen evolution catalysts.

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

 

2017 U.S. – China Trade

January 31, 2018

A picture is worth one thousand words. Here’s a chart of the U.S. trade deficit with China.

2017 : U.S. trade in goods with China (U.S. Census Bureau)

NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.

Month     Exports Imports    Balance
January 2017 10,071.9 41,376.3 -31,304.4
February 2017 9,797.8 32,763.4 -22,965.5
March 2017 9,625.8 34,204.7 -24,578.9
April 2017 9,839.7 37,471.9 -27,632.2
May 2017 10,193.3 41,801.6 -31,608.3
June 2017 9,710.3 42,291.9 -32,581.7
July 2017 10,045.6 43,601.7 -33,556.1
August 2017 10,925.1 45,819.5 -34,894.4
September 2017 10,804.2 45,442.0 -34,637.8
October 2017 12,967.9 48,197.4 -35,229.5
November 2017 12,718.2 48,148.8 -35,430.5
TOTAL 2017 116,699.9 461,119.3 -344,419.3

President Trump’s adamant opposition to our trade deficit with China and other countries is justified, particularly in light of the fact that 2017 was not a fluke. The U.S. became a deficit nation many years ago.

In response, on Jan. 23, 2018 he approved recommendations by the U.S. Trade Representative to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported large washing machines and parts, and up to 30% on solar panels. The former decreases and expires after three years, the latter phases out after four years.

Trade is a complex subject, to the point that it is possible to find eminent economists that do not agree on what to do about it. The issue of solar panels is in a category all by itself. The President denies that anthropogenic climate change/global warming fueled primarily by an explosive accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is in full swing. He rejected COP21 and committed the U.S. to continued full exploitation of all fossil fuels. The tariff on solar panels is part and parcel of his pro-fossil fuels policy as the tax would raise the price of solar systems and encourage people to stick to traditional fossil based systems.

Here’s why he’s wrong:

  1. This could easily escalate into a full blown trade war with China. In this age of multinational corporations it is difficult to see how that would play out.
  2. Imposing tariffs among equals smells of desperation, a tacit admission that our capitalist decentralized system is unable to compete successfully and profitably with an authoritarian laser-focused system as measured by number of manufacturing jobs for humans, not robots, as a percentage of the gross national product. So far this year China’s economy is growing three times faster than ours.
  3. The fact that the best he can do is to impose tariffs means that new ideas, sorely needed to improve the earnings of the working classes, are not on the table.

The President’s mantra of “America first” sounds good and attracts voters who don’t stop to think what it really means. That approach is impractical and unworkable in a global economy with uneven distribution of natural resources. For example, if we want to export manufactured goods, other countries must have the means and desire to buy them. Accordingly, the economies of all countries in the world, large and small, matter.

In decades to come -assuming nuclear war is somehow avoided- it will become increasingly clear that the top priority will be to amend the composition of the SDR (special drawing rights), a synthetic currency created in 1969 by the International Monetary Fund. Originally expressed in terms of gold, it is currently based on the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, the euro, the pound sterling, and as of October 1, 2016, the Chinese renminbi.

As it now stands, the system condemns 163 nations out of 195 in the world to convert their currencies to obtain SDRs. We propose that hydrogen or electricity generated from green sources be added to the basket. For example, Madagascar, an island, could produce and export hydrogen from the ocean, and Mongolia, a landlocked country, could produce electricity from solar and export it via transmission lines. The value of these two commodities would be used to compute their currencies’ (the ariary and tugrik respectively) ability to obtain SDRs without converting them to, say, U.S dollars. This would do three things. Firstly, it would give direct access to the SDR basket to the 163 nations currently excluded.  Secondly, it would spell the beginning of the end of fiat currencies vying for the much coveted status of reserve currencies of the world. Thirdly, it would encourage the production of hydrogen and green energy from sources that cannot be monopolized by a few multinational corporations or nations.

From that point on, it will become possible to create a balanced trade environment.

 

2 Minutes to Midnight

January 28, 2018

On January 25, 2018 the Science and Security Board Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 2 minutes to midnight, something that had not happened since 1953, at the height of the cold war.

There is no need to repeat the reasons for this assessment. However, the litany is so overwhelming and dismaying that we believe their appraisal is actually extraordinarily optimistic. Consider this: by today’s standards the weapons of mass destruction available in 1953 were primitive. All-out nuclear war in our time would transform our wonderful blue marble, our only home, into a radioactive lifeless wasteland.

In our view, the root cause of our predicament lies in the spiritual component of our existence. Characteristics such as good/evil, love/hate, greed/magnanimity, rebelliousness/obedience, and pride/humbleness, said to dwell somewhere in our brains, are directly responsible for everything from the abysmal gap in the distribution of wealth and income to climate change. Accordingly, we are called upon to suddenly, somehow, achieve a level of collective enlightenment on par with our recently perfected ability to self-destruct, a daunting task to say the least. We are on the brink, as President Kennedy feared, of failing to abolish nuclear weapons. Instead, like the Sword of Damocles, a few more swings and they will surely abolish us, the elite included.

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