The conclusion to 2012’s talks in Doha, Qatar, which created a bridge from the old climate regime to a new one, set the stage for a cliffhanger in 2015, when a new comprehensive agreement will have to be reached. It reaffirmed the continuation of the Kyoto protocol for another eight years, preserved the body of related international law, and retained the rules on accounting for emissions and trading between countries. At the same time Kyoto will expire in 2020, when a new agreement will end the distinction between “developed” and “developing” countries and require them all to commit to reductions in line with their level of development. In addition, it reaffirmed that the agreement must seek not to exceed the UN goal of limiting global warming to 2C, created a specific procedure to review each country’s emission targets, established a mechanism to compensate the countries most affected by climate change, and set a 2015 deadline to achieve the new agreement.

Easier said than done. The last time this was attempted, 2009 in Copenhagen, presidents and prime ministers from around the world failed to agree to a binding, enforceable course of action, and in so failing, caused a collapse in confidence that any agreement will ever be reached. As before, it’s shaping out to be a matter of the economy versus the environment, and the former has always won: the most recent U.S. presidential election hinged primarily on the economy, not global warming.

The situation is dire. In spite of targets set by the heaviest polluters, including the U.S. and China, global emissions are rising, a direct consequence of growth and higher per rising capita consumption of fossil fuels. Given the level of devastation that the working classes have endured in the U.S. and parts of Europe, no leader worth his/her salt would dare take a course of action to aggravate the unemployment rate. That begs the question, must we reach the point that we’ll all have to carry oxygen tanks on our backs on a daily basis before we do what we must to quit using fossil fuels?