U.S. – Iran MOU 06-17-2026

Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has jointly agreed in good faith on the following:

  1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war, by signing this MOU declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
  2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
  3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.
  4. Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal,
  5. Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf with Oil states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz
  6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
  7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, i.e.
  8. IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
  9. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down blending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
  10. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions, and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
  11. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU, and until the termination of sanctions, the US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
  12. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
  13. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
  14. After signing this MOU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1,4,5,10, and 11 of this MOU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.

Verification: https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863027/us-iran-trump-memorandum-of-understanding-full-text

The Case for Green Hydrogen

Hydrogen, the most abundant element in the visible universe, is the primary fuel of the stars, undergoing nuclear fusion to form helium and release vast amounts of energy. With current knowhow, the hydrogen to helium conversion cannot be reversed. Helium is a noble gas; it is very unreactive because its outermost (and only) electron shell is completely filled. Thus, the helium floating in the universe is a byproduct of hydrogen fusion with no known specific purpose or function. Accordingly, absent an unknown mechanism that continually creates hydrogen on a human timescale, its fusion mode is not considered a renewable form of energy. Hydrogen is also the lightest element in the periodic table, with the simple atomic structure of one proton and one electron. It is considered an energy carrier because it stores, transports, and delivers energy produced from primary sources like fossil fuels, solar, biomass, and wind power. Most of the Earth’s hydrogen is held within its mantle and core. The core is estimated to contain four or five global ocean’s worth of hydrogen, and the mantle two global ocean’s worth of hydrogen. However, currently this internally stored hydrogen is commercially inaccessible. The vast majority of the ocean’s hydrogen is locked in water molecules. Recent (as of June 2024) and ongoing advances in direct seawater electrolysis make it increasingly feasible to produce hydrogen directly from the ocean.

Types of Hydrogen

Hydrogen is classified by its isotropic composition (protium, deuterium, tritium) and by its production method, which uses color codes:

  • Green Hydrogen: Is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen through electrolysis using electricity generated from renewable energy sources like solar, wind, or geothermal. The sun and the ocean are readily available and inexhaustible on a human timescale. Better yet, so far no one has successfully claimed to own them; therefore, at least for now, they’re still free. Accordingly, subject to physical limitations, any country with direct access to the ocean and endowed with abundant renewable energy could theoretically produce any amount of green hydrogen; and the profits would be theirs alone to keep. Currently hydrogen is more expensive than fossil fuels. One reason is that the costs of the damage caused by anthropomorphic climate change, including health issues, environmental harm, and extreme weather events are considered “externalities” not added to the price of fuels. Recognizing these costs would likely boost inflation and health and real estate insurance premiums; and create new taxes to generate the revenue the government needs, and will need, to effect widespread repairs from worsening environmental disasters. Since political opposition to all of the above is nearly universal -and to understate it- extraordinarily strong, chances are it won’t happen any time soon. Unsurprisingly, as of 2023 only about 0.15% of global hydrogen production is green. Green hydrogen is projected to achieve price parity with blue hydrogen (see below) by 2030.
  • Indigo Hydrogen (suggested): Generated at high temperatures (typically 45-80 degrees Celsius) by thermophilic hydrogen-producing bacteria inhabiting deep-sea hydrothermal vent fields. These bacteria are of interest for potential biohydrogen production and waste treatment.
  • White Hydrogen: Found in underground geological formations. While naturally produced and combustion-neutral, it is a relatively rare and currently insignificant source of fuel. These “wells” resemble fossil fuels to the extent that they are in specific locations. Not all countries with access to the ocean and renewable energy sources have white hydrogen reserves. As a result, rights to the wells would be vested in a small minority of the population; that would exacerbate inequality within and among nations.
  • Blue Hydrogen: Derived from fossil fuels, most commonly natural gas, but with the significant addition of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to trap the carbon dioxide produced during the process.
  • Grey Hydrogen: Made from natural gas via steam methane reformation, similar to blue hydrogen, but without the capture and storage of the resulting CO2, making it a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Black and Brown Hydrogen: Produced from black (bituminous) or brown (lignite) coal, respectively, through processes like coal gasification. These are the most environmentally damaging types due to their high carbon emissions.
  • Pink/Red Hydrogen: Produced using electricity from nuclear power. Pink hydrogen typically uses nuclear power for electrolysis, while red hydrogen might use nuclear power to fuel the grid, which then powers electrolysis.
  • Turquoise Hydrogen: A newer method that involves methane pyrolysis, where methane is split into hydrogen and solid carbon, avoiding CO2 emissions.

The Hydrogen/Water Nexus

The Earth is quasi-spherical and its axis of rotation and orbital motion are such that the entire planet is eventually exposed to sunlight. Approximately 71% of the Earth’s surface is covered by water. Of that, about 96.5% is saltwater and 3.5% freshwater, with 68% of the latter frozen in Greenland and Antarctica. That leaves only 1.1% in usable surface water, and some of it is frozen a good part of the year. Furthermore, freshwater is not evenly distributed. For example, the North American Great Lakes contain approximately 21% of the world’s surface freshwater; in contrast, the Sahara Desert, an expanse slightly smaller than the entire Lower 48 United States, has only 1% of the world’s freshwater.

The natural water cycle does not favor the world’s arid regions; in fact, since most of the Earth’s surface is covered with water, it follows that most natural precipitation falls directly on the ocean. In addition, anthropomorphic climate change is exacerbating droughts and water insecurity: roughly half of the world’s population already experience severe water scarcity for at least part of the year. What’s worse, a feasible coordinated global effort designed to counteract the water shortage simply doesn’t exist; at least it’s not publicly known to be on any multinational agenda.

Importance of Green Hydrogen

Hydrogen alone has the unique property to make water (as steam) when it’s burned. As long as renewable energy is available, the hydrogen/water dynamic is a perpetual cycle. Fossil fuels, nuclear fission, and other renewable forms of energy can’t and don’t do that. As for fusion, which consumes 4 hydrogen protons to make one atom of helium-4, it in fact permanently reduces the existing volume of hydrogen with which to make water. In other words, given humanity’s fertile imagination and insatiable lust for power, in due course new energy-hungry applications and weapons will undoubtedly emerge that may eventually irreversibly deplete the ocean just as we have depleted the aquifers. Another Mars.

Unlike fossil fuels and fissionable elements, which must be mined and transported from wherever they are found to centralized plants, oceanfront countries that choose to produce hydrogen would be free to extract it without paying royalties to intermediaries and to become, at their sole discretion, energy (green hydrogen) self-sufficient and/or exporters. At that point a formula could be created and adopted by simple majority consensus of all recognized sovereign nations to replace the International Money Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of privileged fiat currencies. The new formula would determine the relative value of all currencies based on national per capita production and use of green hydrogen.

Individual nations would retain complete fiscal control and be fully responsible for their respective sovereign debts; but countries that choose to overprint money would be unable to export their inflation. One practical ramification of this built-in anti-spending discipline (famously espoused by Thomas Jefferson) might be to nudge all nuclear powers to actually abolish nuclear weapons as specified in Article VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, before said weapons abolish us.

There is nothing on the horizon to combat extreme wealth inequality within and among nations and its consequences; and nowhere is it steeper than in the United States. This chart vividly illustrates the difference in gross domestic product (GDP) and population density between the American East and West.

The remarkably similar American and Chinese pattern of nightlights is intrinsically linked to the availability of water. This empirically implies that a prerequisite for higher GDP is, in fact, abundant water. The conclusion is therefore obvious: to boost GDP water must be available where and when it’s needed. Since the natural water cycle fails to do that, it’s up to humanity to literally create a source that does. What’s more, the new infrastructure should be specifically designed to distribute future growth equitably to counteract the catastrophic impact that artificial intelligence (AI) and automation (robots) combined will likely have on the labor market and society at large. Only green hydrogen, by virtue of its unique ability to literally make water in inland areas far from any shore, where desalination is impractical or impossible, can effectively replace fossil fuels and nuclear fission to power such industries as green metals, cement, glass, plastics, fertilizers, shipping, aviation, heavy transportation, leisure and hospitality, among many others. And we’re running out of time.

De-dollarization and Oil

De-dollarization is not an abstract, insignificant concept. It is most pervasive in commodity markets, particularly energy, where a growing number of transactions are being priced in non-dollar denominated contracts. This is an offshoot of Western sanctions on Russian energy due to the Ukrainian conflict. To cope, Russia diverted energy exports eastward and southward and sold them either in the local currencies of buyers, or in countries Russia perceives as friendly. These include China, India and Turkey. Even Saudi Arabia has been considering adding yuan-denominated futures contracts, albeit at a slower pace.

The trend has also been gaining ground in cross-border yuan settlements beyond oil. Some Indian businesses have been paying for Russian coal imports in yuan, even without Chinese intermediaries. Bangladesh too recently decided to pay Russia for its 1.4 GW nuclear power plant in yuan.

Conversely, deposit dollarization is still widespread in emerging market countries, particularly in Latin America, with an aggregate dollarization rate of 19.1%. In contrast, Asia has the lowest at 9.7%. As for China, its dollarization rate has been persistently falling since 2017, when U.S. – China relations markedly began to be increasingly characterized by the trade war and growing geopolitical tensions.

The trend is poisonous to the U.S. economy, which relies on the petrodollar to attract liquidity for government securities and Wall Street. A steep, irreversible decline in the use of the dollar would magnify the weight of the perennial fiscal and trade deficits, the accumulated debt, and the probability of hyperinflation. The danger here, never before seen, is that China’s unrivaled status as factory of the world is increasingly acceptable simply because its currency can be redeemed for all sorts of consumer goods. In addition, other countries hope to export to its vast consumer market.

Viewed in that context, it’s easy to see why the U.S., for all practical purposes, acquired complete control of Venezuela’s oil deposits, and reserved the right of first refusal of Canada’s tar sands. Africa and the rest of Latin America are not a problem.

Iran is. Not only because of the size of its indigenous oil reserves, but because, as we have seen, it is determined to reject American dominance in the extreme. As it now stands, it can threaten American bases in the Persian Gulf, close the Strait of Hormuz, and, if needed and approved by its theocratic rulers, swallow the poison pill and actually destroy all oil and gas infrastructure and water desalination plants in the Middle East, including Israel. Needless to say, a blow of that magnitude to the economy and the very viability of the countries in the region, and indeed the world, simply cannot be underestimated.

Iran is also ground zero of the underlying rivalry between the U.S. and China, and, as fierce supporter of the Palestinian cause, a dangerous threat to Israel’s policy regarding Judea and Samaria, otherwise known as the occupied Palestinian Territories. If Iran succeeds in evicting the U.S., it may accelerate the demise of the dollar as reserve currency of the world, with ominous potential ramifications for both the U.S. and Israel. If the U.S. prevails, it will give it the ability to dictate the price of oil, indefinitely preserve the petrodollar, and determine who gets how much oil and who does not. In other words, it would put China in the same situation Japan found itself in in 1941, when the U.S. embargoed its oil supply. The de facto conquest of Iran would also inherently bury the Palestinians’ hope of statehood.

As things now stand, they’re on a collision course, and no one seems to have concocted a compromise to prevent a terminal war. This need not be. Despite their best efforts to decouple, China and the U.S. are each other’s best customers and stand to gain more than they may realize, if only they come up with a neutral plan to support each other’s needs.

For example, they could negotiate and agree on a timetable to transition from fossil fuels to green hydrogen, and to make it, on a per capita basis, the universal determinant of the relative value of all currencies. For practical purposes, that would redistribute future wealth more equitably among and within all nations and perhaps even usher in long-term peace.

Incidentally, to say the least, it would be good for the environment.

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe’s energy mix is heavily reliant on biomass (wood fuel) for residential heating and cooking (approx. 60–70% of total supply), while electricity generation depends primarily on coal and hydropower. The country faces chronic power shortages due to aging infrastructure, low water levels at Kariba Dam, and a ~1200 MW supply against ~2000 MW demand. Solar is growing, particularly for farming irrigation and industrial use, to reduce strain on the grid.

Zimbabwe is advancing green hydrogen development to combat energy shortages and drive decarbonization.

Zambia

Zambia’s energy mix is heavily dominated by hydropower, which provides roughly 82–88% of its electricity, making it vulnerable to droughts. Total electricity capacity is approximately 3,871 MW. The remainder of the power sector consists of coal (about 9%), solar (3%), and heavy fuel oil (5%).

Zambia is actively developing a green hydrogen industry to diversify its energy mix, reduce reliance on climate-vulnerable hydropower, and support agricultural (fertilizer) and mining sectors. Key projects include a large-scale, grid-connected solar-powered hydrogen plant by GEI Power in the Southern Province.

Key developments and insights include:

  • Key Projects: GEI Power is developing a major project in the Chikankata district (Southern Province) utilizing grid-connected solar PV. Another initiative, “Matta Power” in the Kafue District, focuses on producing green hydrogen for ammonia-based fertilizers and mining explosives.
  • Feasibility & Costs: Research indicates that producing green hydrogen using Zambia’s existing grid power is feasible, with costs estimated around US$7 per kilogram. However, standalone, off-grid systems are currently more expensive and technically challenging.
  • Strategic Drivers: The shift is driven by the need to combat energy shortages caused by droughts affecting hydropower, along with a push for localized fertilizer production.
  • Industry Focus: The focus is on industrial applications (mining, fertilizer) rather than immediate household use, which would require much lower costs (US $0.60 to $1.20 per kg).

Yemen

Yemen’s energy mix is heavily dominated by fossil fuels, with over 99% of energy consumption traditionally derived from oil and natural gas. Due to conflict, domestic oil production has plummeted, forcing a reliance on expensive imports and creating a severe electricity crisis, although recent, rapid adoption of solar power (accounting for over 10% of generation in 2023) is providing critical relief in some areas.

Yemen possesses high potential for green hydrogen production due to abundant solar resources, with studies indicating a competitive Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) of approximately $2.70 per kg. While neighboring countries like Oman and Saudi Arabia lead in active projects, Yemen’s geographic position allows for significant, though currently early-stage, renewable energy-based, sustainable development.

Vietnam

Vietnam’s energy mix in 2026 is rapidly evolving from a coal-dominant system toward renewables to meet 10–12% annual demand growth, targeting net-zero by 2050. Currently, coal provides around 34–54% of power, followed by significant hydropower (~30%), a surging solar sector (over 8%), and growing wind capacity.

Vietnam has positioned green hydrogen as a cornerstone of its 2050 net-zero goal, leveraging a vast renewable energy potential estimated at over 600 GW of offshore wind. The government formalized this commitment with the National Hydrogen Development Strategy in early 2024.

Major Projects & Investments:

  • Tay Ninh Green Hydrogen Complex: A $5.7 billion partnership with Japanese firms (Kansai Electric, TOYO Group) aiming for 600,000 tons of annual production.
  • Quang Tri Wind-Hydrogen Plant: A $2.4 billion joint venture between China Huadian and Minh Quang JSC, powered by 1.2 GW of wind and 800 MW of solar.
  • Tra Vinh Plant: Vietnam’s first green hydrogen facility, under construction by The Green Solutions Group in collaboration with Honeywell, expected to be operational by late 2026.
  • HDF Energy Initiative: A $500 million investment plan from French developer HDF Energy for hydrogen-to-power and transport projects. 

Venezuela

Venezuela’s energy mix is heavily dominated by fossil fuels for primary energy consumption, while electricity generation relies predominantly on hydropower. As of 2023–2024, the total energy supply is roughly 46% natural gas and 38% oil, with hydropower contributing about 14–15%. However, over 60–75% of electricity generation is derived from large-scale hydro plants.

Venezuela is exploring green hydrogen as part of its energy transition, leveraging its high hydroelectric capacity. While the government has proposed a Draft Green Hydrogen Law as of 2023, development is in early stages, often stalled by economic, financial, and regulatory challenges. Key sectors for potential application include industrial processes and fuel alternatives.

Vanuatu

Vanuatu’s energy mix is dominated by imported fossil fuels, which account for over 80% of its electricity generation. While biomass remains the primary source for rural cooking, the nation is actively working toward a goal of 100% renewable electricity by 2030 through the expansion of solar, wind, and hydro power.

Vanuatu is in the early stages of exploring green hydrogen as a key pillar for its long-term energy transition and decarbonization strategy. The nation aims to leverage its abundant renewable resources to replace expensive imported fossil fuels, which currently supply about 75% of its electricity.

In October 2024, Stellae Energy announced a geothermal power project in Vanuatu. The plan involves producing green hydrogen in areas where local grids are insufficient, using it as a transportable energy carrier for remote communities and the marine sector.

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