November 16, 2021

The lack of an acknowledged breakthrough on Taiwan in the wake of the summit between Presidents Biden and Xi is, to put it mildly, alarming. We’ve previously summarized some of the reasons for Taiwan’s importance to both China and the United States, hence the irreconcilable posture between the two regarding Taiwan’s independence. As a result, unsurprisingly, the meeting does not appear to have resolved the matter. The word “appear” is appropriate because secret agreements may have been arrived at that, for internal political reasons, both would rather not disclose. Failing that, it’s safe to infer that at a time of its choosing, China may well invade Taiwan. If it takes that step, it will be an indication that its decision makers will have reached the conclusion that they can defeat not just Taiwan but the United States as well. No need to dwell on the aftermath of such a war. Suffice it to say that it would be catastrophic, not just for the belligerents but for the entire world.

In view of the above, it is absolutely imperative to come up with a face-saving compromise that satisfies the core interests of China and the United States. On that vein, it is understood that while important, the collective will of the Taiwanese people on the core issue of independence from China depends entirely on U.S. political and military support. A compromise is possible, however it will require flexibility along the lines of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the only reason why we collectively escaped unscathed from the horrors of a thermonuclear war.

Looking at it impartially, the most important point to consider is that China does not actually need to occupy Taiwan in order to continue their astonishing growth. In fact, both have already done quite well without it. What China does need, at least until fossil fuels are no longer used, is an ironclad guarantee that it will always have equal unrestricted access to oil from the Middle East and semiconductors from Taiwan. Viewed in that context, the issue of how Taiwan is governed, by whom, and for how long becomes much less prominent and ought to be negotiable.

As a suggestion only, here are a few points that might be used as a basis for compromise:

1)
Taiwan agrees, in perpetuity, not to declare independence from China, to split its production of advanced semiconductors equally between the U.S. and China, and to allow China to build and perpetually operate a naval/air base on a peripheral island currently ruled by Taiwan such as Lanyu.

2)
The United States and Taiwan recognize Chinese ownership of the Spratley Islands.

3)
China agrees, in perpetuity, to respect the right to self-determination of the Taiwanese people and to not invade or blockade Taiwan in any way as long as the latter does not declare independence unilaterally.

It should be noted that such an agreement would mirror Cuba’s situation. In the wake of the 1962 agreement with the now defunct Soviet Union, the U.S. did not invade; however it still sanctions the island and retains the base at Guantánamo Bay.