April 7, 2018

President Trump’s recent orders to deploy the National Guard along the Mexican border calls for a frank, truthful analysis of the facts. Incidentally, his immediate predecessors did the same thing.

All sovereign nations have the right to seal their borders if they so choose. In fact, two famous precedents exist. Emperor Hadrian built his famous wall to keep the northern barbarians out of Roman Britannia, and the first emperor of China, Qin Shi Huang, connected existing segments previously built by various states to keep nomads from inner Asia out. Notably, in both cases, it was southern empires that acted to keep northerners out. Now, ironically, it will be the other way around.

At issue is whether the trend and volume of illegal immigration thorough our southern border is detrimental to the interests and security of the United States. The chart above shows that, in fact, immigration from Mexico has been declining sharply over the last 14 years; at the same time, immigration from India and China has been increasing. Since these trends predate the president’s tenure, he won’t be able to truthfully claim credit for them.

There are several reasons for this, among them improving economic conditions in Mexico and persistent discrimination, contempt and rejection of Latinos in general, including Mexicans, in the U.S. As for security, there’s no question that violent street gangs must be eliminated. However, since they thrive from the illicit drug trade, it will be difficult if not impossible to do so as long as America’s insatiable demand for illicit drugs remains unchecked. After all, with just 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. consumes fully 80% of opioid global production. One other thing about security: Latinos cannot be accused of mass shootings or terrorist acts.

The real reason behind this desperate attempt to reverse the ongoing profound demographic shift in America is political. It is not that Hispanics will become a majority in the country –whites will remain the largest group- it’s that Hispanics tend to concentrate in pivotal areas. In Texas, for example, they are projected to outnumber whites starting in 2023, and in time the gap will expand simply because the Hispanic population is younger and the white population older. Since by and large Hispanics tend to vote Democratic, the shift has potential seismic consequences for Republicans, who are mostly white, and their philosophical beliefs. There is another side to this. As whites retire and Hispanics replace them in the labor force, it is the latter who will bear the burden of supporting the former.