Saving New York & Low-Lying Cities From Sinking

April 4, 2016

There are two main components to the global water crisis exacerbated by climate change: drought and flooding. While temporary phenomena like El Niño mask the long-term nature of the former, doing nothing will not save cities like New York, Miami, New Orleans or Dacca from the ocean’s relentless rise.

Plan A could solve both while simultaneously ending the use of fossil fuels and nuclear fission to generate electricity. In a nutshell, it calls for flooding with seawater natural below-sea-level depressions and dry lake beds in sparsely populated areas in the western U.S., southern Argentina and western Egypt. In addition to generating clean energy, it  should reduce the expected increase in ocean rise and simultaneously create a new source of fresh water wherever desalination is impractical or impossible.

Low-lying Cities Sinking Twice As Fast

April 4, 2016

A new study from climate scientists Robert DeConto at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and David Pollard at Pennsylvania State University suggests that the most recent estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for future sea-level rise over the next 100 years could be too low by almost a factor of two. Low-lying cities could be devastated sooner than expected.

Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health

April 4, 2016

A 332-page report developed and issued today under the President’s Climate Action Plan details how climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. Water will become more contaminated, food more tainted, and the air dirtier. Already it affects more people in more ways than ever, including asthma attacks in children, invasions of disease-causing mosquitoes and mental health. Here’s an Executive Summary of the report.

Not only is it this calamity going to get worse, there’s an abysmal gap between the government’s rhetoric and action. Congress is unable or unwilling, or both, to act in tandem with the Obama administration to do what’s necessary to halt –and eventually reverse- climate change. The technology exists. Money abounds, especially in this environment of low interest rates when big capital is searching for profitable long term, safe returns. But the will is lacking. Perhaps it will emerge when the powers that be begin to realize that inevitably they too are going to pay the same price as the rest of us, much sooner than they are willing to admit.

Extreme Poverty Worse For Men

April 3, 2016

Writing for the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eleni Karageorge reports that researchers in the National Bureau of Economic Research have found that men who experienced poverty as children suffered greater economic consequences than women who grew up in poverty. Gender differences in employment rates varied. Among people whose parents were in the bottom fifth of income distribution when they were young, the 30-year-old men were less likely to have a job than were the women. This was especially true among boys who were raised by a single parent. But for all other income groups, the opposite case was true; specifically, men were employed at higher rates.

High Risk of Severe Water Stress in Asia

March 30, 2016

A study published in the peer-reviewed online journal PLOS (Public Library of Science) finds that in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, there is a high risk of severe water stress in some densely populated Asian watersheds by 2050.

Abstract

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Carbon Emissions 10 Times Faster Than Ever

March 28, 2016

A study in Nature Geoscience compared the ongoing anthropogenic increase in carbon emissions with previous similar episodes. The only known analogous event –the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM- happened 56 million years ago during the Cenozoic era, when the Earth’s average temperature shot up by about 5 degrees Celsius. While the precise cause of that ancient spike is not yet known, geologic evidence shows that it took place gradually, over a period of 4,000 years. Subsequently the greenhouse effect acidified the oceans and unleashed a major die-off of some marine organisms.

Deep ocean core sediments off the coast of New Jersey revealed that the rate of accumulation during the PETM was about 1 billion tons of carbon per year. In contrast, today’s rate is 10 times higher, too fast for organisms to adapt. Since the current rate of carbon release is unprecedented, there is no time-tested way to determine if our species, at the top of the food chain, will survive the onslaught.

Highly Efficient Solar Cells

March 27, 2016

A new study published on March 24, 2016 in the journal Science demonstrates that hybrid lead halide provskites, solar cells that can be produced cheaply with easily synthesized materials, have an astonishing ability: not only do they absorb energy from the sun to generate electricity as all solar cells do, they actually produce additional light energy.

Today’s photo cell efficiency record is close to 21%, well below the 33% absolute theoretical ceiling that William Shockley and Hans Queisser predicted in their widely accepted 1961 paper. It may now be possible to reach that limit at a much lower cost.

The Categoric Report

March 16, 2016

The Mayan Lesson
 

Human nature does not change; it only repeats itself. The ancient Maya, a singularly gifted civilization that rose, peaked, declined and collapsed almost simultaneously with the Roman Empire, left a vast historical record: a tale of an unholy alliance of kings, priests, and military leaders who usurped and corrupted their religion to legitimize and perpetuate their rule. To subdue their people, they created a society afflicted with abysmal inequality and used their immense wealth to wage perennial wars of aggression, practice institutionalized genocide, and ruin their environment.

Collectively the Maya once occupied and controlled the deltas of most Caribbean rivers in Mesoamerica, from the Pánuco River on the north, where the Teenek (the Aztecs still call them Huastecs) live, to the Gulf of Honduras. Whether they achieved this astonishing feat under the leadership of a long-forgotten military genius, when they all spoke Proto-Mayan over four thousand years ago, is anybody’s guess. The fact is, in a world without beasts of burden, pirogues reigned as the only means of mass transit along the great rivers. And, by reason of the strategic location of their homeland, they effectively controlled all fluvial and coastal trade between the Mexican and Guatemalan highlands -with their vast deposits of obsidian, jade, cinnabar and many other minerals- and the Caribbean Sea, as well as between what we now call North and South America. Over time, their immense wealth supported the great progress they made in the arts and sciences, among them amazingly accurate calendars, linguistics (their scripture, though not the first in Mesoamerica, could be read and understood by speakers of all the Mayan languages), mathematics, astronomy, hydrology, architecture, medicine (which made it possible for  them to thrive in a jungle teeming with hundreds if not thousands of tropical diseases) and agriculture. However, eventually the original central authority splintered into a multitude of independent and competing city-states. As with the ancient Greeks, who suffered a desperate struggle between Athens and Sparta, Mayan city-states eventually coalesced into the orbits of two rival alliances led by Calakmul and Tikal, the two dominant southern lowland cities of the Classical Period (300-900 A.D.). Over time, their intentional mutual isolation fractured Proto-Mayan into thirty-two related but mostly mutually unintelligible languages, complete with different names for the deities of their common religion, and caused centuries of fratricidal wars that culminated in the slow demise of their civilization. By 900 A.D., six-hundred years before the Spanish invasion, the formerly great cities of the southern lowlands, now in ruins, had been abandoned to the relentless jungle.

Humble cinnabar -underestimated and now all but forgotten- was the premier source of wealth of the time. Since time immemorial it had been used to make red for textiles, buildings, writing, pottery, murals and burials, and the work was done mostly in poorly ventilated huts or small rooms. One byproduct was pure elemental mercury, a highly toxic liquid metal that is not naturally found in its pure state. As jars full of it have been found in ancient burial chambers, two things are certain: humans distilled it, and over time -hundreds or even thousands of years- it necessarily must have found its way to the food chain via aquifers, streams, rivers and the sea -a long-term environmental catastrophe of incalculable magnitude.

The Maya commonly used cinnabar powder or paste to coat cadavers with it, a necessity -or so they believed- since someone had long ago determined that only cinnabar could and would keep the dead from rising from their graves at night to steal the souls of the living. And the demand was incessant and permanent. The constant “flowery deaths” –cutting the beating hearts out of hapless captives- guaranteed a steady supply of corpses. For the elite, it was a stupendously lucrative business. In cahoots with the priests and the generals, the kings had monopolies on war making, which caused deaths, and on cinnabar, which they imported from the highlands and for which there was an enormous, permanent demand. That forced ordinary people to work tirelessly for meager amounts of it, be it by growing food, serving in the army whenever the fields did not require their labor, or collecting exotic feathers, jaguar skins, seashells, jade, or whatever the kings fancied at exchange rates the kings, not the people, determined.

The ruse lasted for centuries, possibly longer, until the day someone mustered the courage to verify it. And so, as it always does, the truth finally emerged. Ironically, their genial writing system -the Internet of the day, which had long since been usurped by the elite to perpetuate their wealth and power- may have played a pivotal role in the rebellion that followed.

Scores of barricaded palaces and other structures have been unearthed where rulers, generals and priests took refuge as the vengeful, enraged masses came for them. The defenses did not hold; the elite were massacred, the scribes disappeared, and the Classical Period came to an end. By A.D. 900 the great Cholan-speaking cities in the Petén jungle -along with the cult of intolerable inequality which had brought ordinary people so much misery and grief- had been abandoned. In their wake, egalitarian villages re-emerged led by elders who doubled as custodians of a vestigial kernel of knowledge.

Nine hundred years later (letter to Colonel Charles Yancey, January 6, 1816) Thomas Jefferson aptly postulated what may be the underlying principle that destroyed the Mayan civilization -and now threatens our own: “If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.”

Jefferson’s Warning: Perpetual Debt, Trade Deficit, Bubbles, Derivatives

March 6, 2016

Two hundred years have passed since  president Jefferson wrote this (excerpted) letter. Not only have we not acted to reduce the risk of total collapse of our financial system, it’s far worse than he could have possibly imagined -and there’s no relief in sight. Today our largest private employer is a retailer, not a manufacturer as in 1950. Among other things, that means that well-paying middle class jobs for men no longer exist to generate the tax revenue the government should and could have. As a result, the combination of accumulated liabilities and risks far exceed the combined resources of the Federal Government and the Federal Reserve, a private bank, which cannot continue to create money from thin air indefinitely. Heed! Do whatever must be done to save this last remnant of our democracy from the jaws of the plutocratic monster. The day of reckoning is fast approaching and we’re running out of time.

 

Excerpt, Letter to Colonel Charles Yancey

Monticello, January 6, 1816

Thomas Jefferson

Thomas Jefferson

Like a dropsical man calling out for water, water, our deluded citizens are clamoring for more banks, more banks. The American mind is now in that state of fever which the world has so often seen in the history of other nations. We are under the bank bubble, as England was under the South Sea bubble, France under the Mississippi bubble, and as every nation is liable to be, under whatever bubble, design, or delusion may puff up in moments when off their guard. We are now taught to believe that legerdemain tricks upon paper can produce as solid wealth as hard labor in the earth. It is vain for common sense to urge that nothing can produce nothing; that it is an idle dream to believe in a philosopher’s stone which is to turn everything into gold, and to redeem man from the original sentence of his Maker, “in the sweat of his brow shall he eat his bread.” Not Quixot enough, however, to attempt to reason Bedlam to rights, my anxieties are turned to the most practicable means of withdrawing us from the ruin into which we have run. Two hundred millions of paper in the hands of the people, (and less cannot be from the employment of a banking capital known to exceed one hundred millions,) is a fearful tax to fall at haphazard on their heads. The debt which purchased our independence was but of eighty millions, of which twenty years of taxation had in 1809 paid but the one half. And what have we purchased with this tax of two hundred millions which we are to pay by wholesale but usury, swindling, and new forms of demoralization. Revolutionary history has warned us of the probable moment when this baseless trash is to receive its fiat. Whenever so much of the precious metals shall have returned into the circulation as that everyone can get some in exchange for his produce, paper, as in the revolutionary war, it will experience at once an universal rejection. When public opinion changes, it is with the rapidity of thought. Confidence is already on the totter, and every one now handles this paper as if playing at Robin’s alive. That in the present state of the circulation the bank should resume payments in specie, would require their vaults to be like the widow’s cruse. The thing to be aimed at is, that the excesses of their emissions should be withdrawn as gradually, but as speedily, too, as is practicable, without so much alarm as to bring on the crisis dreaded. Some banks are said to be calling in their paper. But ought we to let this depend on their discretion? Is it not the duty of the legislature to avert from their constituents such a catastrophe as the extinguishment of two hundred millions of paper in their hands? The difficulty is indeed great: and the greater, because the patient revolts against all medicine. I am far from presuming to say that any plan can be relied on with certainty, because the bubble may burst from one moment to another; but if it fails, we shall be but where we should have been without any effort to save ourselves. Different persons, doubtless, will devise different schemes of relief. One would be to suppress instantly the currency of all paper not issued under the authority of our State or of the General Government; to interdict after a few months the circulation of all bills of five dollars and under: after a few months more, all of ten dollars and under; after other terms, those of twenty, fifty, and so on to one hundred dollars, which last, if any must be left in circulation, should be the lowest denomination. These might be a convenience in mercantile transactions and transmissions, and would be excluded by their size from ordinary circulation. But the disease may be too pressing to await such a remedy. With the legislature I cheerfully leave it to apply this medicine, or no medicine at all. I am sure their intentions are faithful; and embarked in the same bottom, I am willing to swim or sink with my fellow citizens. If the latter is their choice, I will go down with them without a murmur. But my exhortation would rather be “not to give up the ship.”

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