January 9, 2022

Background

• On December 7, 2021 (Pearl Harbor Day) the White House released a readout of the video call between Presidents Biden and Putin.
• On December 15, 2021 Presidents Putin and Xi reportedly cemented ties between Russia and China. According to the Kremlin, the latter backed Russia’s push for security guarantees in the Ukraine.
• On December 30, 2021, in a 50-minute phone call, Presidents Biden and Putin reportedly exchanged warnings over the crisis in the Ukraine.

As can be expected, no unredacted transcripts of these conversations were made public, therefore it is useless to speculate as to what was omitted from the official disclosures. However, the sequence of conversations is reminiscent of, and as ominous as, the feverish negotiations that took place in July 1914 as the Great Powers attempted, without success, to halt the automatic series of events that unleashed a devastating pivotal war between two sets of alliances that, among other things, broke up the Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Turkish Empires, set the stage for the rise of Hitler, led to the subsequent demise of the British and French Empires, the temporary partition of Germany, the demise of the Soviet Union, and an American economic and military hegemony now being challenged by a rising China. On that occasion, it should be remembered, the Kaiser gave Austria-Hungary what became known as a “blank check” to, essentially, wage war on Serbia as retribution for the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

Although the public does not know exactly what Presidents Putin and Xi said to each other, the sequence of the three phone calls is not exactly a harbinger of optimism for a quick, peaceable settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. Of particular interest is the fact that it was President Putin who requested the second call with President Biden, and it took place two weeks after the former’s conversation with President Xi.

On January 10, 2022, long-awaited talks in Geneva between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukrainian crisis are scheduled to begin. At issue is a Russian demand/ultimatum for a guarantee that the Ukraine will never joint NATO and, essentially, to roll back the military balance in Eastern Europe to what it was just after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. More specifically, that NATO in general, and the United States in particular, make good on a verbal promise made to Gorbachev’s regime that NATO would not expand into the former Warsaw Pact countries. In addition, President Putin has publicly demanded quick compliance with the ultimatum. NATO and the U.S. have publicly rejected both demands. They justify their position by saying that NATO is defensive in nature and that the Ukraine cannot be forced to make decisions “with a gun pointed to its head,” presumably a reference to the tens of thousands of Russian troops presently deployed along their common border. Inversely, Russia views the alliance, which was set up to counter communism and the now defunct Soviet Union, as a hostile entity, and that Ukrainian membership in NATO would by default point a gun to Russia’s head –Moscow.

Point and Counterpoint

The United States has ruled out putting American combat troops in the Ukraine to counter a possible Russian invasion. However, buoyed by British and German backing, it has promised unprecedented retribution on Russia should the latter decide to attack the Ukraine. For its part, Russia says there will be no concessions on its demands. Presumably this implies that the pain of any retributions the U.S. and NATO can bring to bear on Russia will be less than tolerating Ukrainian membership in NATO. And so, confident of prevailing, neither side is expected to back down. Whether their respective postures will unleash catastrophic events exceeding World Wars I and II combined in this day and age of weapons of mass destruction, COVID and climate change, time will tell. The spectacle is reminiscent of two silverbacks fighting for dominance. The question is, can we do any better?