Climate Science Special Report – 2017

November 4, 2017

Here is a classic case of bipolar behavior. The Trump Administration withdrew from COP21 on the belief that it hurts the economic interests of the United States. Today however, over a dozen agencies of the very same government jointly released the congressionally mandated Climate Science Special Report. In it, hundreds of scientists conclude “based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Here are some consequences of climate change:

  • Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.0˚C (1.8˚F) between 1901 and 2016, the warmest period in the history of modern civilization.
  • Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and atmospheric water vapor.
  • Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise in the next 15 years and by approximately 1 meter (1-4 feet) by 2100. A rise of as much as 2.4 m (8 feet) cannot be ruled out.
  • Heavy rainfall in the Northeast of the United States and in some areas globally is increasing in intensity and frequency and is expected to continue to increase.
  • Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent.
  • The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems.
  • Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century.
  • The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 5˚C (9˚F) or more by the end of this century. With significant emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 2˚C (3.6˚F) or less.
  • The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO2 emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is a broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are potentially large and irreversible.
  • The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15–20 years has been consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-intensive. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to well below 2°C (3.6°F) above preindustrial levels.

The report does not estimate the cost of climate change to the United States, nor does it compare it with the cost of leaving fossil fuels in the ground, which is what it would take to stop the flow of CO2 into the atmosphere. However the losses from the recent (and future) furious hurricanes, forest fires, drought, and the inexorable depletion of aquifers in the Great Plains and California, the source of much of our food, are a clear and present danger to the nation’s very security. First we lost our manufacturing base; now we’re on track to lose our ability to grow our own food. Along with the growing threat of thermonuclear war, these issues should be the talk of the town, but they aren’t. Instead, people who aren’t even born yet will face the music –and curse us for our irresponsible greed.

Highest Concentrations of CO2 and Methane

October 31, 2017

The World Metereological Organization (WMO) has issued a report. Essentially it says that CO2 average levels in 2016 reached 403.3 parts per million, and methane emissions have spiked. All told, if present trends continue, the optimistic targets reached at COP21 simply will not be met. The technology to do so exists. What we don’t have is a global political consensus to make the targets mandatory with enforceable sanctions. We’ll pay anyway for the consequences of natural disasters -higher insurance premiums and taxes for emergency responses, etc.

Mass Production of Hydrogen Needed

[google-translator]

October 21, 2017

Rapidly melting glaciers in northwestern China and throughout the world are expected to disappear completely within the next 50 years, a global catastrophe in the making. They are in some cases the principal source of water (the other being groundwater which is also being rapidly depleted) for many cities and vast agricultural concerns worldwide. Simply stated, no water equals desperation, mass migrations and increased competition, even war, over other (already over-stressed) water resources in neighboring regions. If nothing is done, food production will decline steeply just as the world’s population reaches 9 billion. Clearly the world is going to need more food, not less, and nothing is being done anywhere to address the situation.

The magnitude and scope of the problem requires a coordinated global effort to nip this problem in the bud before it reaches an unmanageable point. The United States, though ideally suited geographically, geologically and financially to be a primary contributor to humanity’s common cause, has chosen instead to walk away from COP21. But the rest of the world can and must mass-produce hydrogen from seawater to make fresh water (and generate electricity) to replace the glaciers and actually expand irrigation to even the most inhospitable areas worldwide. This is an unprecedented opportunity on a scale the likes of which has not occurred since Homo Sapiens materialized. If we miss it we’ll get what we deserve.

Dawn of a New World Order

[google-translator]

October 12, 2017

Chinese Train

Over the last forty years China spectacularly lifted hundreds of millions from poverty, a stunning achievement by any measure.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Graffiti Train

In contrast, during the same time frame the United States created more billionaires –it has more than any other nation- and plunged the middle class into or near poverty. Today’s lack of well-paying jobs and job security for the working and middle classes –men in particular- has created a sense of hopelessness and despair, with alarming consequences.

For the first time in American history life expectancy for white people is declining due in no small measure to the ongoing deadly opioid epidemic. New construction of single family homes and condominiums priced for young, low and middle-income single buyers, who are burdened with enormous non-dischargeable student loans, is practically nonexistent. And that’s just for starters. Our infrastructure –dated and in disrepair- urgently needs to be upgraded and modernized. We have no bullet trains, and with the exception of New York’s subway –not the cleanest or safest in the world- mass transit in most of the country is, to put it mildly, primitive. And then there’s health care, a for-profit industry, not a constitutional right. Americans pay far more and get far less than comparable societies. Suffice it to say that the Clark County Commission Chair in Las Vegas had to set up a website asking for donations to help the victims of the recent horrific events that took place in that city pay for their emergency medical costs.

For better or worse climate change -unstoppable and unrelenting- will transform the world over the next two generations. Already the Yuan, backed by gold, is being used by countries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela to pay for oil, and several major countries –including China, India, Germany and France- have announced they will ban gasoline and diesel-powered automobiles. This spells trouble for oil-dependent economies, particularly the U.S. The dollar, no longer in great demand, will lose its status as the preferred reserve currency of the world. Investors will severely curtail or cease buying Treasuries at low rates and the government will have to compete in the open market for the funds it needs to finance its perennial deficits. If it resorts to printing money with abandon as it previously did, inflation will spike. In any event, it simply will not be able to spend on the same scale as in the past, with grave implications for the military.

Ironically, China –a country believed ruled by a Communist Party- is already infected with the same strain of inequality that has decimated the middle class in the U.S., and the contagion is spreading. It already has the second highest number of billionaires and the situation will likely get worse as robots and artificial intelligence eliminate more jobs than they create. Accordingly, if China wishes to avoid the divisive, dangerous consequences currently afflicting America, it must find a way to redistribute its wealth in a more egalitarian manner.

It all boils down to one’s point of view. If the ruling elite believe they are unassailable come what may, they will continue to do whatever they must to maintain the status quo –their wealth and power. On the other hand, if they conclude that their best bet to survive is to introduce Aristotelian democracy –the rule of the majority- throughout the world and to create a system that guarantees without preconditions a minimum universal income to every human being everywhere, then there’s hope.

As noted in a previous essay, one way to do so is to make the production of hydrogen a universal means to acquire SDRs’ (Special Drawing Rights) the quasi currency currently set to become the de facto global trading medium. Low-grade technology that cannot be monopolized by a small minority of the population exists that would allow even the smallest, most indebted nations to emerge from poverty. Thus, they too would have renewable income to consume manufactured goods from surplus countries, to everyone’s benefit.

 

The North Korea Saga

September 24, 2017

Dracaena cinnabari

As with Dracaena cinnabari’s labyrinthine, spiny canopy, the ramifications of North Korea’s nuclear program reach everyone on this planet. In fact, it threatens to bring to a boil the simmering rivalry between China and Russia on the one hand, and the United States, NATO (notably, Germany does not support war)  and Japan on the other, a system of alliances and ententes reminiscent of pre-World War I Europe. Both sides have staked their positions. Paradoxically, the Chinese government under Xi Jinping has adopted a less tolerant attitude toward North Korea’s nuclear program, in some ways resonant with President Trump’s U.N. speech. As neither party can afford to be perceived as weak or less than courageous at home or abroad, it is wise to take them at their word. But North Korea’s loss with China is fully compensated by its mutual defense treaty with Russia, signed by President Putin into law and ratified by Russia’s upper house in November 2024. Thus, North Korea duly sent war materiel and troops to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine in the latest Battle of Kursk. In response North Korea reportedly over a million barrels of Russian oil, or over double the amount allowed by the United Nations.

Meanwhile President Putin weighed in saying that North Korea views its nuclear and missile program as its only means of self-defense. His logic makes sense, but there’s much more to it than that.

Proliferation of Weapons

A simple fact: thorough research reveals that historically the proliferation of weapons has been the rule, not the exception. For that reason it borders on the naïve to believe that the proliferation of nuclear weapons can be permanently prevented. It might be possible for a finite period of time –years or decades- but not permanently.

The first countries to arm themselves with nuclear weapons were the victorious powers of World War II and veto wielders in the Security Council of the United Nations: the U.S., the Soviet Union (and its successor, Russia), China, France and Great Britain. Since then countries that either did not exist or were not then independent –India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan, in alphabetical order, have acquired them. No wartime leader is known to have foreseen that these specific countries would one day be armed with these weapons. By the same token, it is impossible to predict who else is going to have them or something worse in the future, including non-state militias.

A Changing World Order

The ongoing festering of the Korean crisis has coincided with three events that herald a new world order. The first is the recent introduction of the gold-backed petroyuan. Russia, Iran, and now Venezuela have begun selling crude to China, the biggest importer of oil in the world, in yuan rather than dollars.

One immediate consequence is the decline in the value of the dollar; another, not yet fully manifested, is the effect all those unused dollars will have on the U.S. money supply when they are repatriated. They will fan the flames of inflation and spike interest rates, the worst possible outcome for the housing market. The federal government, saddled with a mountain of debt and perennial current account and trade deficits, will likely find it impossible to do much about it. That will trigger a cascade of events, none pleasant.

The second is that China, France, Britain and India have decided to stop sales of gasoline and diesel automobiles. China did not announce a target date, but it is pressuring automakers to speed things up. France and Britain will do so by 2040, India by 2030.

The third event, boycotted by all nuclear powered states and their vassals, is the adoption by 122 nations of a treaty to ban nuclear weapons. According to Costa Rica’s U.N. ambassador in Geneva, fully 129 nations signed up to help draft the treaty, two-thirds of the 193 member states. While nuclear armed states do not recognize it, the message from the majority of the world is unmistakable. It is a rebellion against the established world order whereby a handful of nations hold the entire world hostage at their pleasure. North Korea, recognizing that nuclear states are not about to renounce them, reserves the right to arm itself with them to deter, in their eyes, an attack by the United States. The obvious danger here is that the nations that adopted the new treaty will at some point in the future get discouraged by the refusal of nuclear states to adopt it and walk away from the Non-Proliferation Treaty a la North Korea. That alone explains why the U.S. and China agree that they will not accept North Korea’s premise. They must make an example of it so that no other country will dare do the same thing.

Convergence of U.S. and Chinese Interests

China’s currency is on the verge of displacing the petrodollar. Given the inevitable decline in the demand for oil that will occur as the world switches to electric cars it is in China’s interest to wait patiently for that event on the assumption that it will collapse the American Financial System. If and when that happens the U.S. will find itself unable to spend on the military as much as it has been since the end of World War II. In other words, China can accomplish this long term goal without firing a shot. Conversely, the U.S. operates on short term objectives, the most pressing being to convince its Persian Gulf allies that it alone can protect the dynasties from extinction by selling them expensive weapons and deploying the navy in exchange for pricing oil in dollars. Neither China nor the U.S. want war, however their strategic objectives are not congruent.

A Face-Saving Possibility

Here is a series of steps that could be taken to defuse the crisis.

  • China would guarantee North Korea’s existence, not with words but with deeds. It would deploy fighter jets, AWACS, tankers, anti-submarine and anti-aircraft ships, and submarines to guard the approaches to North Korea.
  • North Korea would immediately cease firing missiles of any type and detonating nuclear bombs.
  • Subject to verification, North Korea would move all its nuclear missiles and bombs to China. The U.S. would reciprocate by not deploying nuclear bombs and missiles in South Korea, also subject to verification.
  • The U.S. and South Korea, and China and North Korea, would sit down –without preconditions- to negotiate a permanent peace treaty.

2016 Third Consecutive Year of Record Global Warmth

August 10, 2017

The National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released an international report detailing the following dismaying facts:

  1. Greenhouse gases highest on record.
  2. Global surface temperature highest on record.
  3. Global lower tropospheric (the troposphere is the area just above the Earth’s surface) temperature highest on record.
  4. Sea surface temperatures highest on record.
  5. Global upper ocean heat content near-record high.
  6. Global sea level highest on record.
  7. Extremes in the water cycle and precipitation.
  8. The arctic continued to warm, sea ice extent remained low.
  9. Antarctic sees record low sea ice extent.
  10. Global ice and snow cover decline.
  11. Tropical cyclones were well above average overall.
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