A World Without Oil

It’s no secret that the probability of nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia is higher than at any time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Presidents Biden and Putin have said so. But if fossil fuels, particularly oil, cease to be used, there would be no bone of contention over the world’s dwindling oil reserves. By the same token, the petrodollar would cease to exist (the rest of the world would not need to earn dollars to pay for it), and oil producers like the U.S., Russia and Iran would have to rely on something else other than oil to prop up their economies. As Russia would have much less revenue to spend on weapons, there would be no defensive reason for NATO’s very existence. Likewise, since the oil reserves in the Caspian region and Central Asia would become obsolete, so would NATO’s “open door policy” along Russia’s southern border. The same would apply to OPEC+ due to lack of demand for their product. Even the Ukrainian war would lose its appeal given that neither Russia nor the U.S. governments would be able to spend more than they earn. In Asia, oil would no longer traverse the Malacca Strait; as a result, it would lose much of its strategic appeal. Finally, almost as an afterthought, Taiwan’s relevance as gatekeeper of that strait would become moot. All told, the disappearance of the oil market should significantly reduce the risk of thermonuclear war.

Nuclear Fission

Spent nuclear fuel generated by fission reactors have a half-life of 24,000 years. While no catastrophic spills of this fuel have yet occurred and the technology to recycle it to generate still more electricity has improved, no one can guarantee that it won’t ever happen. Recycling helps but does not completely eliminate the waste. The most modern method to recycle spent nuclear fuel would generate no more than 30% of France’s electricity, meaning that 70% would still have to come from other sources (the U.S. does not recycle its spent nuclear fuel ). In addition to the spent fuel, fission plants can have accidents as in Fukushima (radioactive water is periodically being dumped in the ocean) and Chernobyl, where its long term effect on wildlife is unclear but still dangerous in some areas. And then, of course, there’s the ambulatory menace: nuclear-powered warships, none of them unsinkable and all of them potential individual sources of uncontrolled radiation poisoning deep in the ocean spread by all-powerful global currents. Given the growing risk of war, it is imperative that we do away with fission before it does away with us.

Fusion

Fusion is the process by which two light nuclei combine to form a single heavier nucleus, releasing a large amount of energy. On December 13, 2022 the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy announced that on December 5, 2022 a controlled experiment at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory achieved scientific energy breakeven, meaning that it produced more energy from fusion than the energy used to drive it. However, though important, the breakthrough is not going prevent catastrophic climate change. It is understood that hydrogen from the ocean would be used in a reaction were it would yield (lots of) energy and helium, an inert gas. Essentially, fused hydrogen would cease to exist as such. As a result, since hydrogen is necessary to form water, a corresponding amount of it would also decline. While it may seem that the ocean is a limitless reservoir, it would be the first time since its formation that water would be systematically destroyed -an irreplaceable loss. Current scientists and politicians cannot possibly anticipate what uses future colleagues might dream up that would require an exponential increase in the destruction of water. Since this is an issue that will affect all living things on the planet, it is a perfect opportunity to practice what we preach: democracy. Have the people of the entire world, regardless of nationality, vote on it, and commit to respect the outcome. That way we –all of us- can collectively assume the responsibility of this monumental decision on behalf of life.